Pushing Taiwan into a `one China' trap

Americans to complain about TV reruns, so they are likely to sympathize with our irritation over the current election campaign in Taiwan. While the upcoming election is supposed to determine the makeup of the Legislative Yuan, we feel like we are watching a rerun of last year's presidential contest.

There are images of People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) everywhere, while the candidates actually running for office are hardly visible. As in last year's election, these three men spend most of their time trading shots over their respective cross-strait policies, even though most people are more interested in solutions to the current econo-mic downturn.

There is, however, a connection between voters' economic concerns and the three leaders' obsession with cross-strait policy. All three see the Chinese market as essential to Taiwan's future economic success, but they differ considerably in terms of how much of Taiwan's future they are willing to bargain away in exchange for market access.

A-Bian the realists in the DPP and Taiwan Solidarity Union know that we will eventually have to cut a deal with Bei-jing for access to its markets. But they refuse to give away the nation in the process. They essentially follow a "dance and dodge" policy: while willing to flirt with Beijing for promotion of economic exchanges, they are determined to dodge any attempts at a closer embrace.

Lien Soong, on the other hand, are determined to strike a deal sooner rather than later. To get the ball rolling, they are prepared to offer recognition of the "one China" principle. In exchange, they ask only that Beijing first agree to tolerate their fantasy concerning the existence of the ROC.

Such a deal would be a disaster for Taiwan. Chen was right to equate Lien and Song's version of the "1992 consensus" with acceptance of "one country, two systems."

The opposition leaders can talk all they want about how the "1992 consensus" supposedly protects the status of the ROC -- and by extension, Taiwan -- within the bounds of "one China," but they are living in a fantasy world if they think any major nation will ever again treat the ROC and PRC regimes as equals.

In fact, recent reports in Hong Kong's media indicate that Bei-jing is actually pushing the 1992 "one China, with each side having its own interpretation," formula as the starting point for talks, indicating that China's leaders no longer see the existence of the ROC as a threat to their legitimacy or claim on Taiwan.

Indeed, having succeeded in luring away all but a few of our allies, Beijing no longer has to push the "one China equals the PRC" formula in talks with Taipei: the rest of the world has already made that determination for us.

Chinese Jiang Zemin (江澤民) can safely play along with the pan-blue leadership's delusions concerning the existence of the ROC because such talk is largely meaningless outside of Taiwan. What matters is Taiwan's formal acknowledgement of "one China" -- however defined -- for once Beijing has that in hand, the rest of the world will simply treat the ROC as a local government, subordinate to the PRC.

If we blindly follow Lien and Soong into this "one China" trap, Beijing will gladly allow us to carry on singing "Three Principles of the People" (三民主義) and waving the ROC flag to our hearts' content -- at least within Taiwan.

The rest of the world will not see past the words "one China" and will simply go on equating China -- including Taiwan -- with the PRC.

Bonnie Hsieh is a freelance writer based in Taipei.