Through the repeated announcement of public opinion polls, both the DPP and the KMT claim to be taking the lead in the Dec. 1 election campaign. As polls have become a new weapon in the battle between the ruling and opposition parties, there is a definite need to clarify their role and function.
In every election season, society brims with all kinds of polls in which many of the results contradict one another. There are only two ways to explain this.
First, when the differences are insignificant, they reflect the real nature of the poll's margin of error. Second, opinion polls may have been manipulated by some politicians behind the scenes for specific political purposes. In the latter, disparate figures tell the sad story of innocent opinion polls becoming tools for political intrigue.
Last year's presidential election was a case in point, with each camp repeatedly giving its own version of poll results for a single election. Whether the purpose was to arouse a so called "dump-save effect" (
Opinion polls in well-established Western democracies have long been closely connected to elections. Electoral opinion polls have been used in the US since the 1930s. The authenticity of opinion polls in the West are a result of four crucial factors: 1: A diverse and democratic society which ensures fair opinion polls. 2: A healthy channel for gathering opinions from the public. 3: The support of academics and the progress of technology. 4: A mature democratic environment, under which each party is willing to accept poll results. The above factors, however, are exactly what we lack in Taiwan.
In today's Taiwan, although it would be difficult to establish a proper environment for more objective opinion polls in such a short period of time, I believe that it is possible by adopting the following two methods: First, polling firms should lash out against fake polls. In other words, polling companies should discipline themselves, since a sound polling environment has not yet been established. They should strictly ban the publication of fake polls and sign an "anti-counterfeiting" agreement with their clients, refusing to endorse fake poll results. They should also ferret out fake polls in an effort to maintain the reputation of pollsters.
Second, the authenticity of opinion polls cannot be verified without careful examination. The polling companies, therefore, have to make a good showing of themselves. They should learn from the advanced countries in the West by making background information on opinion polls public -- including the sponsor, pollster, motivation, time, polling method, survey content and interviewees. They should even provide original data for further examination. By doing so we are able to avoid any masquerade while restraining the spread of fake polls. In doing so we will allow the public to more adequately distinguish between fairly handled and careless or outright fake polls.
Finally, to keep opinion polls in perspective, they should not be taken as frontline election warriors. They should be independent and should not be used as political tools. Of course, to achieve the above goals, no one should interfere in opinion polls. It takes the ruling and opposition parties, the media and polling companies together to establish a sound environment for authentic opinion polls. Only by returning to the statistical nature of opinion polling -- letting the numbers speak -- can the authenticity of polls shine. In this way, a more mature democracy will be possible.
Jeff Wu is CEO of the Decision Making Research Center.
Translated by Eddy Chang and Francis Huang
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry