Those hoping for an immediate and miraculous break-through in cross-strait trade or even political relations after China and Taiwan enter the WTO are likely to be disappointed. All the signs indicate that major changes are unlikely to happen overnight. There is more of a chance of incremental breakthroughs over a long period of time -- during which time Taiwan will have to continue to put up with humiliations and pugnacious demands from China. As unpleasant as this may be, such gradual changes are better for Taiwan.
Reflecting the unlikeliness of any drastic changes is the possibility that Taiwan might invoke the provisions of Article XXI of the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (now an agreement under the WTO) on exceptions from GATT obligations for national security reasons. Such a move would allow Taiwan to begin direct links with China only when Taiwan is fully prepared and when China is ready to talk -- not as soon as Taiwan enters the WTO.
In the past, much attention has been focused on the likelihood of Taiwan invoking Article XIII of the WTO charter -- the "opt-out" clause -- against China, so that it would be able to continue its ban on direct cross-strait links. The ban constitutes a non-tariff barrier on trade with China and therefore runs counter to the "most-favored-nation" principle. The opt-out clause allows each prospective WTO member a one-time-only chance to opt out of trade relations, as well as the obligation to comply with WTO requirements in these relations, with any existing members upon the former's accession.
The problem is that if Taiwan decided to invoke the clause, it would no longer be able to use the WTO dispute mechanism against China. That would defeat a big part of the reason for Taiwan wanting to join the WTO, namely, to place cross-strait relationships within an international framework.
But the possibility of Taiwan invoking the opt-out clause has become increasingly remote. One reason is that China has long demanded that its own accession must take place before Taiwan is to block Taipei's invocation of the clause. As a member, China would have the chance to try to block Taiwan's accession from going through. Another reason is the US opposition to such a move -- an opposition recently restated by Assistant US Trade Representatives Jeff Bader, who suggested that Taiwan should invoke GATT's provision on security exceptions instead.
That provision is a viable option. Not only would such a move help Taiwan maintain the ban on direct links, but Taiwan would not have to invoke it after its accession, taking away the possibility of China's obstruction of Taiwan's entry into the trade body. Furthermore, the article, which merely allows exceptions from GATT obligations, is much less comprehensive than a total opt out of trade relations with China. This would also give China the chance to save "face," if it had any left.
No country would be able to challenge Taiwan's invocation of the security exception since direct trade with China obviously creates security risks as long as Beijing continues to claim the right to use force against Taiwan.
As for Beijing, it does not appear to have any intention of changing its attitude toward Taiwan after WTO entry. Zhang Mingqing (
So it looks like the status quo will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.
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