A 1978 speech by the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) gives an in-depth explanation of the massive risk involved if China were to try to solve the cross-strait issue by military force. Deng said: "If China undertakes unification through non-peaceful means, there can only be two possible outcomes. One, China will have to pay a considerable price even if it succeeds in conquering Taiwan. The southeastern coast [of China] will be in ruins. Also, what [China] conquers will be a Taiwan in ruins. [It will also have to] face 17 million hostile Taiwanese. Two, China will have to pay an even higher price if it fails to conquer Taiwan. The KMT will still rule Taiwan and 17 million Taiwanese will be pushed into the KMT's fold. The civil war may evolve into an international war and invite interference from imperialists. This will not be conducive to China's interests."
Finally, Taiwan does not need to harbor any illusions about US policy or entertain groundless fears. US policy has long supported "one China," peaceful resolution and dialogue across the Strait. Since last year, the US has even taken the stance that any peaceful resolution to the cross-strait issue must have the consent of the people of Taiwan. Even if the US rebuilds strategic relations with China, it will not look on meekly from the sidelines when China attacks Taiwan. It is definitely in the interests of the US -- not just Taiwan -- to maintain stability, peace, prosperity and development across the Strait.
Also, Taiwan is a democratic country. Any US government that sells out Taiwan will have to pay a considerable moral price. During the Cold War, the US needed China to counter the Soviet Union. Taiwan was then an authoritarian state and yet the US was unwilling to sell it out. The US is even less likely to do so now. Even if the US is no longer willing to give Taiwan's visitng leaders high-level treatment or sell it cutting-edge weapons to Taiwan, that will still not affect the basic US policy on the cross-strait issue.
Tung Chen-yuan is a doctoral candidate at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University.
Translated by Francis Huang
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