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A surprise attack by China is a possibility

Richard Russell's article in the autumn issue of the US Army War College's respected Parameters, entitled "What if China Attacks Taiwan," has received a lot of attention recently. While economists and political pundits discount an invasion, those in military circles have to consider the unthinkable.

Playing the devil's advocate, Russell argues that the impossible is possible.

The most common invasion scenario is an amphibious assault following a missile attack, but Russell suggests that an amphibious assault alone is not that plausible.

Forget about Normandy beach-style invasions. Russell suggests that China might attempt a surprise attack that combines a massive missile barrage with an airborne assault.

According to Russell's theory, China's Second Artillery Corps would unleash up to 400 short, medium and long-range missiles on Taiwan in multiple-wave and multi-directional saturation attacks. China's Dong Feng-11 (M-11) and DF-15 (M-9) short-range ballistic missiles would most likely begin the assault on Taiwan's air bases, port facilities and strategic installations.

At the same time China's 15th Airborne Army, with three airborne divisions, would begin their assault. Though Russell does not name any of Taiwan's potential airbases or ports as targets, others have suggested that an airborne assault at one pinpoint on the map would open the door.

And everyone seems to agree that door is Taichung.

China has already begun planning for an airborne assault on Taichung. Jane's Defence Weekly has reported that China has built a replica of Taichung's Ching Chuan Kang airbase at a site near Dingxin airport in the northwest province of Gansu. Parachuting commandos into Taichung would cut Taiwan in half, provide China with port and airfield facilities for bringing in more troops and equipment, and cut off north-south roads and highways from the coast to the central mountain region.

Taiwan is hardly ignorant of this fact, but for some mysterious reason Taichung's port has been chosen as the designated "direct links" port facility.

Imagine container ships loaded with hundreds of Chinese Special Forces erupting from cargo holds. A potential Trojan Horse in the making. After the Ching Chuan Kang airbase was secure, China could fly in 14 divisions of "rapid reaction" troops, with air support from China's 1,000 bombers and fighters.

With Taiwan's airbases destroyed, there should be little resistance except for Taiwan's surface-to-air missiles. While analysts point out China lacks military airlift capabilities for a massive invasion, they ignore basic airlift platforms such as commercial aircrafts and cargo air carriers with heavy lift capabilities.

Taiwan has no early warning radar to detect missile launches, no overt surface-to-surface missile capability, no air refueling capability for its fighter planes and no way to bloody China's nose if it did attack.

The worst thing that would happen to China if it tried and failed to invade is that it would lose some troops and equipment (and of course some "face"). There would be no fear of Taiwan retaliating on Shanghai or Fujian Province.

This scenario is so fast it would be extremely difficult for the US to intervene.

No one believed Japan would attack Pearl Harbor, or that North Korea would invade South Korea, or that China would enter the Korean War, or that the North Vietnamese would violate the Tet ceasefire.

History is littered with surprise attacks and Taiwan is not immune from becoming another footnote in history.

Wendell Minnick is the Taiwan correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly.
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