A new report conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a well-known US think tank, revealed that the KMT has urged Beijing to refrain from opening dialogue with President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) because that might strengthen his position and increase his chances of re-election.
The report also said that the KMT has urged Chinese leaders to await the return of their own party to power and has promised to pursue a cross-strait policy that is more amenable to Beijing.
But the KMT has denied ever blocking Beijing from resuming talks with Taiwan, saying Chen's refusal to accept the so-called consensus of 1992 of "one China, with each side having its own interpretation" is the real problem hampering the resumption of dialogue. KMT Chairman, Lien Chan (
The fact is, most China experts wouldn't be surprised to hear that some KMT members or other opposition elements from Taiwan have attempted to prevent Chen from scoring points for his cross-strait policy, though these people do not necessarily represent mainstream KMT thinking or have the authorization of the party.
Recently, the New Party, with less than 5 percent of popular support, proposed a new "one country, three systems" formula to Beijing during its trip to kow-tow to China. Those who try to sacrifice Taiwan's national security and dignity in return for their own party interests constitute the main source of Taiwan's political chaos.
Beijing's "divide and conquer" strategy toward Taipei is too obvious to be overlooked. Ironically, Taiwan's opposition has often played along with China's tactic of "allying with the secondary enemy to counteract the chief enemy."
This shows that most politicians in Taiwan ignore the fact that the nation will be put into grave danger if the parties fail to unite.
Taiwan's economic downturn provides more opportunity for China to continue its strategy of just listening to Chen's words and observing Chen's deeds.
But how can Chen deal with this state of affairs?
In addition to emphasizing the domestic consensus within Taiwan, the Chen administration should also generate sympathy in the international community for Taiwan's new win-win approach, and exploit divisions within the PRC on its approach to Taiwan.
What the US fears most in cross-strait relations is surprise and unpredictability. What Washington wants are consistent, predictable, and peaceful policies to be maintained on both sides. Although adaptation and change in cross-strait relations is necessary now given that Taiwan is a full-fledged democracy, US policymakers often lose patience with Taiwan when they are not consulted prior to new announcements from Taipei.
Former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) announcement of "special state-to-state relations" between Taiwan and China irritated Washington at a time when it was hoping for better communications with Taipei. What Taiwan received was a decrease in trust and support from both the State Department and the Congress.
Chen's establishment of frank communications with Washington erased the image of Taiwan as a "troublemaker" in cross-strait relations. That explains why the CSIS report attributed the source of the delay in cross-strait rapprochement to the Beijing government and the KMT.
Beijing's greatest fear is a consensus on Taiwan that meets with international approval. The fact is that there is a significant consensus in Taiwan on the essence of relations with Beijing.
The majority of people here support a policy of peace, resumption of cross-strait talks without precondition, and moves toward normalization of bilateral economic relations. No party is daring enough to violate the mainstream of status-quo supporters.
Only if Beijing sees such a united front will it recognize the reality that it must deal with Chen and his government. If they sense weakness or division, they will exploit it by demonizing Chen and waiting for his term to end.
Furthermore, having the Chen administration's mainland policy managed more exclusively by the Mainland Affairs Council will free up the rest of his government to emphasize domestic reforms.
This is Chen's greatest strength, and his destiny. Chen's reiteration of the government's determination to eradicate "black gold" politics and his pushing the administration to implement concrete measures signified a good start.
If public discourse in Taiwan is all about statements made by Chen's government on cross-strait relations, he is at a disadvantage.
The opposition camp will unite against Chen. But domestic reform divides and undermines the opposition, which used to be the product of the KMT's crony capitalism. Moreover, successful domestic reform will increase respect for Taiwan's democracy internationally and within China. In this regard, Chen's legitimacy will be further consolidated if he can accomplish domestic reforms. That could, in turn, serve as the basis for his political maneuvering on cross-strait relations.
Chen does not need a breakthrough on cross-strait relations in his first term in order to be deemed a successful president. No quick solution can solve the cross-strait stalemate.
If Chen can maintain the status quo he will have done more than many people expected of his government. What Chen needs to do most is to exercise strong leadership by re-focusing national debate on his own agenda and imposing discipline on his government. It's time to take some real action.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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