Editorial: Taking the long-term perspective

The Economic Development Advisory Conference enters its final, consensus-forming stage today, but the two key issues that will determine its success or failure -- relaxing the "no haste, be patient" policy and establishing direct links with China -- are still mired in a debate between national security and economic development concerns.

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) wants to adopt "aggressive openness, effective management" as a keystone policy for cross-strait trade, but elders from the pro-independence camp and several academic think tanks oppose the plan, describing the policy as equivalent to "feeding a tiger with one's own flesh."

Everyone is focusing on the conference, but if one looks at the situation from the perspective of post-WTO accession -- expected by the end of the year -- then one gets a very different picture.

Long Yongtu (龍永圖), China's vice minister of foreign trade, hinted on Wednesday that China and Taiwan are likely to enter the WTO at the trade ministers' meeting in Qatar in November. Taiwan concluded its negotiations for WTO entry long ago, but its entry had to be delayed for several years because China pressured the trade body not to allow Taiwan in before itself. The two sides are entering the WTO under the names "China" and "the separate customs territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu" respectively. These two are separate sovereign entities, non-subordinate to one another.

After its WTO entry, Taiwan's economy will formally link up with the global economy. Trade relations with China, therefore, will have to be conducted within the WTO framework. Taiwan has already made it clear that it will not invoke any of the organization's exclusionary clauses against China; it will treat China on a par with other countries when it comes to trade relations. There will be no special treatment. Certainly, due to national security concerns arising from cross-strait hostilities, Taiwan may still maintain "effective management" of cross-strait trade. The extent of this management will depend on the actual economic interactions on the ground, as well as Beijing's willingness to reciprocate goodwill.

Within the WTO framework, both Taiwan and China will be independent, internationally accepted customs entities -- with mutually exclusive jurisdictions. This framework can help the two sides get around Beijing's "one China" obstacle, set the sovereignty dispute aside and enter into dialogue on economic issues and build mutual confidence.

However, if Taiwan is to view its trade relations with China -- capital, tariffs, commerce and labor affairs -- from the WTO's international perspective, then it will be necessary to readjust the "no haste, be patient" policy as well as the ban on direct links. Domestically, skipping the globalization versus Sinicization debate can ease the disputes over independence and unification.

As for direct transportation links, the WTO does not require them of members and entry into the trade body does not necessarily entail such links. The issue can be handled in a flexible manner after accession, depending on the actual needs of cross-strait trade, as well as official and non-official cross-strait

interactions.

Everyone attending the EDAC and making decisions on Taiwan's economic direction should realize that trade issues with China will only be one part of Taiwan's globalization process. Taking such a view will enable conference members to avoid making short-sighted, rash decisions.