US SECRETARY OF State Colin Powell visited China at the end of July, prompting a warming of Sino-US relations. In early August, a delegation from the US Senate's Foreign Affairs Committee visited Taipei and Beijing, requesting that the two sides resume negotiations. Following this, while receiving US senator Joseph Biden, Chen Shui-bian (
This was the latest of Chen's explanations of the one China policy since becoming president on May 20 last year, and with it, he took a great leap from "a future one China" (
Why did Chen take this great leap forward?
Looking at the overall situation in the US and Asia Pacific, we see that economic development in general has slowed down, that the US economy is slipping, that unemployment rates are rising, that stock markets are still falling, and that they have not reached the bottom yet.
Although China's GDP continues to grow at a rate of 7 to 8 percent, the Asia Pacific region -- particularly East Asia, with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea -- is still slipping, and the Malaysian, Singaporean, Indonesian, Philippine and Thai economies of Southeast Asia are not coming back to life. India, in South Asia, does not much influence the economies of the Asia Pacific, where the economic slowdown may very well lead to a second economic crisis in the region.
To deal with this, the US is attempting to persuade the governments on both sides of the strait to resume negotiations, to change the political situation, push Taiwan's economy forward, and to stimulate the Hong Kong, Korean and Japanese economies. This should be of help in preventing a second economic crisis in the Asia Pacific, and it should also be of help in arresting the fall of the US economy and helping it to pick up again. We can with certainty say that a continued fall of the Taiwanese economy will be detrimental to the whole Asia Pacific region and to the US, and that arresting the fall of Taiwan's economy and helping it to revive is a fundamental condition for protecting the current status of the Republic of China.
Looking at Taiwan, the economy has fallen from a growth in GDP of 5 percent last year to an estimated growth of 1 percent this year, a fair amount of capital and talent has moved to China, unemployment among workers is on the rise, and Taiwan's stock market has lost about 40 percent in value. With the year-end legislative elections looming, Chen Shui-bian's government and the DPP are under great political and economic pressure. It was for this reason that Chen proposed the "constitutional one China" policy, explaining that it was a solution to this pressure, hoping that it would be of help to the DPP in the year-end legislative elections. Taiwan's stock market has not picked up since, however, showing that Taiwanese society still doubts his policies.
At the same time, the "constitutional one China" proposed, as it was, by Chen during his talk with Senator Biden can also be seen as one kind of response to US pressure.
Regardless of how it has been done, however, the ball that is "one China, with each side having its own interpretation" (
Under the rule of the KMT, Taipei proposed the so-called 1992 consensus of "one China, with each side having its own interpretation" to "unite China under the three principles of the people: freedom, democracy and distributed wealth," to which China did not agree. Then China proposed "one country, two systems" (
After Chen came to power, he proposed the "future one China" policy, making it possible to discuss a future one China with Beijing. This forced China to give in and accept the "one China, with each side having its own interpretation" consensus to which it was previously opposed. Chen, however, hesitated, unwilling to accept the 1992 consensus. Beijing therefore proposed a new "one China principle" (
The People's Liberation Army is currently carrying out large-scale military exercises on Dongshan Island in Fujian Province. To prevent a sudden attack on Taiwan initiated by a finger slipping on a trigger, the US is requesting Beijing and Taipei resume negotiations.
In the new international and domestic situation which sees Beijing and Taipei about to join the WTO, Chen has proposed that the one China issue be solved according to the ROC Constitution, which is tantamount to saying that the Republic of China is a country.
What will Beijing do? This author believes that it will respond in one of the following two possible ways:
One, Beijing thinks that Chen's idea is his rendering of Lee Teng-hui's (
At the same time, the authorities in Beijing hope that the Taiwanese economy will continue to decline, and the best thing would be social turmoil in Taiwan due to an economic crisis, giving the communist party an opportunity to attack Taiwan.
The authorities in Beijing will not pay any attention to Chen's "constitutional one China," but continue to do things according to their old ways. But how should Beijing face the international community? How should they face the pressure from the US? These are difficult questions.
If Taiwan's economy continues to decline and to damage the livelihood of the Taiwanese people, the impact on capital and talent already invested in China will be difficult to predict. Is it possible that Taiwanese capital will move back to Taiwan? That would bring great damage to China.
Two, the Chinese Communist Party will hold its 16th national congress (
The communist party has been shouting "one country, two systems" for 20 years, and apart from a small minority in Taiwan's New Party that accepts the slogan, it has had no major influence on ruling or opposition parties in Taiwan. It is therefore time to thoroughly discuss and change this policy.
The confederacy (
It is the firm belief of this author that the economic achievements of the Taiwanese people, the current democratic system and the national dignity of the Republic of China will not be easily abandoned, and the authorities in Beijing therefore need to fully consider these factors when setting new Taiwan policies.
Chris Wu is editor in chief of China Spring and China Affairs magazines.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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