There are indications that the Bush administration's unexpected "charm offensive" toward Russia is partly an attempt to disrupt the emerging Russian-Chinese entente. And missile defense appears to be the issue that Washington's has chosen to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.
On several occasions, Bush has assured Putin that a missile defense system is not directed against Russia and would not attempt to neutralize that country's strategic deterrent. Perhaps most revealing, the President has never attempted in his speeches on the issue to give comparable assurances to Beijing. That omission has been duly noted by Chinese officials.
As a potential wedge issue, missile defense is well chosen. Beijing will be most displeased if its Russian partner approves the US scheme. Yet the temptation is great for Moscow. Russia is in no position economically to counter a US missile defense system by launching a new offensive arms race, and Russian leaders believe (correctly) that Washington will go ahead with the program with or without Russia's approval. Since the US is offering to cut its own offensive arsenal as a concession to gain Moscow's acquiescence, Putin stands to gain something significant by being cooperative.
But Washington's charm offensive cannot end with the missile defense issue. There were other reasons why Russia drifted into strategic cooperation with China, and Washington will have to change its behavior on those issues as well to effectively disrupt the Russian-Chinese entente. Most notably, Moscow was angered by the decision to expand NATO eastward in 1998. Russian leaders will be even more upset if the Alliance expands again, especially if it takes in one or more of the Baltic republics on Russia's border. Yet Bush and other NATO leaders still talk of further expansion. If the US is intent on permanently driving a wedge between Russia and China, that ill-advised scheme will have to be abandoned.
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.
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