In the year-end legislative elections, the union only needs to win more than 5 percent of all votes to surpass the party threshold and win a number of constituent and "at-large" seats.
But in fact, the strategic value of the number of seats won by the TSU does not depend entirely on how many seats it will snatch away from the DPP or the KMT. Rather, the value lies in whether it can help prevent the pan-KMT opposition alliance from winning a legislative majority.
If, as a result of the TSU's participation in the elections, the opposition alliance loses control over a legislative majority of more than 113 seats, then an "85 plus 35" partisan reshuffle is not entirely impossible.
If the opposition alliance still manages to win a majority despite the TSU's participation, then the party's post-election influence will be greatly reduced. The party achieves its optimum tactical goal when it manages to chip away votes from a good number of pan-KMT candidates and causes them to lose. For this reason, how the TSU will be positioned on the independence-unification spectrum will be of particular importance -- it will determine whose votes the TSU will chip away.
Wang Yeh-lih is a professor of political science at Tunghai University.
Translated by Francis Huang
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