Positioning crucial for Lee's party

The Taiwan Solidarity Union

(台灣團結聯盟, TSU), whose formation had been in the works for quite some time, announced its party name, logo and flag on Tuesday. It will become Taiwan's 95th political party when it files an application for registration with the Ministry of the Interior on July 31. Also, it will be Taiwan's first political party with the word "Taiwan" in its Chinese name.

Even as it forms, the TSU has been the center of controversy because it has raised the "pro-Lee" banner, taken a "localiza-tion" platform, vowed to help the Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) government stabilize the political situation and stirred up worries about whether it will erode the KMT's or DPP's voter bases.

However, after the party announced its name on July 24, the KMT, DPP and People First Party all said that the TSU's establishment will not have any major impact on them in the year-end election. In fact, people are still evaluating the prospects of this party.

Taiwan has a unique "single non-transferrable vote in multi-member districts" system in its legislative elections. For its presidential elections it adopts the plurality or "first-past-the-post" system. These differing systems are likely to generate two diamet-rically opposite forces in terms of shaping public opinion. A plurality system can easily generate centripetal incentives for candidates and causes them to seek support from a majority of the electorate.

Due to the psychological effects generated by strategic voting (known in Taiwan as "dumping one candidate to save another"), votes are likely to concentrate in the hands of two major candidates. On the other hand, a "single non-transferrable vote in multi-member districts" system generates centrifugal incentives for the candidates.

In other words, candidates will not move closer to the center, but will be scattered throughout the political spectrum and try to win the loyal support of specific minority groups that can give them enough votes to win.

In Taiwan's legislative elections, there are many reasons why voters pick a particular candidate. The social divisions formed by different views toward independence or unification with China is a key demarcation with the largest bases for partisan support. A listing of the major political parties in terms of their platforms on the independence-unification spectrum (from left to right): Taiwan Independence Party, DPP, KMT, PFP and New Party. The positioning of the TSU on the independence-unification spectrum -- as well as the party's strategy for partitioning different sectors of the electorate -- will affect its ability to develop a voter base. It will also determine which existing party will lose the largest chunk of its voter base to the TSU.

Throughout its preparatory phase, the TSU has stressed its position as a pro-localization, middle-way party. But it is increasingly being defined as farther to the left than the DPP on the independence-unification spectrum -- following the grand reception given to former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) by independence supporters at the CKS airport upon his return from a trip to the US.

Therefore, the party stands to have a bigger impact on the DPP's votes than on KMT and PFP votes. Certainly, the KMT -- not the DPP -- is happy to see this happen. Even if the TSU does not want to be defined this way, its ability to garner the support of middle-ground voters will be a decisive factor in its ability to develop a voter base.