Editorial: A cautionary tale for Chen

In the second half of last year, the presidents of three Asian democracies -- Joseph Estrada of the Philippines, Abdurrahman Wahid of Indonesia, and Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) of Taiwan -- all faced impeachment or recall threats. Estrada was ousted and is now on trial for corruption and plundering the economy, perjury and using fake names to set up bank accounts. Indonesia's People's Consultative Assembly sacked Wahid yesterday for incompetence and replaced him with Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri. Will Chen follow in their steps?

The sagas of all three men have many similarities. All three countries have just emerged from decades of authoritarian rule to become democracies. The old order collapsed and a power vacuum emerged during the transition to a new democratic order. The new leaders, who had little experience in governance, were on the defensive and powerless to effectively tackle social problems. This has resulted in public disgruntlement.

On top of this, the global economic downturn has dented the three nations' economies and their governments have been unable to come up with effective stimulus measures. Inevitably, public discontent has been rising and powerful opposition parties have been twisting the arms of their governments.

But Chen is different from Wahid and Estrada. Chen has not been suspected of serious moral lapses, just lack of administrative and economic experience, therefore neither the public nor the media supported the opposition's recall drive to punish him for halting the construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant (核四).

Neither Wahid nor Estrada worked hard enough to tackle the political and economic problems facing their countries. Instead, they were obsessed with power struggles that led to impasse between the ruling and opposition parties, which in turn led to their own ouster.

The biggest difference between Chen and the others though, is that over his 14 months in office he has strongly demonstrated his desire for reform.

Despite continuing domestic problems and the disappointing performance of his government, people can feel the dedication and efforts that his officials have put into problem-solving. This has somewhat eased public dissatisfaction. Over the past 14 months, Chen has gone on two overseas diplomatic tours and scored good results in relations with the US and arms procurement. Upon his return from a Latin America tour in early June, he quickly set up a cross-party advisory council on economic affairs and went all-out into organizing the Economic Development Advisory Conference. The first session of the conference was held on Sunday -- a first step toward building a consensus on how to solve the country's economic as well as political problems.

Will Chen become Asia's third president to be impeached? The likely answer is no -- if he can learn a lesson from the ousters of Wahid and Estrada; keep in mind his predecessor Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) adage about always carrying "the people's aspirations in my heart;" work hard to resolve the country's problems; and opt for reconciliation instead of conflict.

John F. Kennedy was deemed unfit for the presidency when he took office, but he proved himself one of the better US presidents in the post-war period. Chen did not have a smooth beginning, but he has a chance to grow in office as Kennedy did and to leave his mark on Taiwan.