President Boris Trajkovski called for calm while his rival,Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski, maneuvered against him. Interior Minister Ljube Boskovski denounced NATO for protecting "terrorists." As the government teetered, its room for maneuver and negotiation narrowed substantially.
Yet some American analysts, such as Mark Palmer, former ambassador to Hungary, would thrust NATO into the vortex with a "robust" military force to back an unambiguous "demand" that the guerrillas disband and the government withdraw its military to its barracks. Even the Bush administration has indicated support for using 3,000 to 5,000 allied soldiers to help enforce any political settlement. In Bosnia, three warring groups, Croats, Muslims, and Serbs, live together in an artificial state held together only through Western military occupation. NATO forces could be there for generations.
In Kosovo, Western soldiers have calmly stood by as Albanians did what Serbs were supposedly bombed for doing -- committing ethnic cleansing. Only a permanent foreign garrison will stop Kosovo from becoming independent.
In Macedonia, NATO would face another endless occupation on behalf of another fragile client. Even if peace is found, it is unlikely to be more stable than those in Bosnia and Kosovo. Especially given the antagonism now felt by the Slavic majority against NATO. Indeed, peace seems far more distant after the alliance's maladroit aid to armed rebels in the midst of a guerrilla conflict.
US President George W. Bush entered office voicing skepticism of the Clinton administration's humanitarian warmongering.
Unless the president adopts a quick policy u-turn, the Balkans probably will become his own, with disastrous consequences for his administration and America.
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and was a special assistant to former US president Ronald Reagan.
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