A reorganization is underway in politics in Taiwan. Three opposition parties -- the KMT, People First Party and the New Party -- have recent held intensive discussions on how to cooperate. The ruling DPP has also started working to build alliances, hoping to gain a legislative majority in the future. Call it the "blue army versus the green army," or "pro-localization versus non-localiza-tion." The battle will take place at the year-end legislative election, which will decide which parties or political groups will survive, how the government can regroup and how power will be allocated between the ruling and opposition parties.
The international power structure has also gone through some changes recently. US President George W. Bush has insisted on building the National Missile Defense (NMD) system, supported the entry of former Soviet states into NATO and engaged in joint air strikes with the UK against Iraq -- totally ignoring the existence of Russia, thereby encouraging Moscow to make a comeback on the international stage.
China is worried that the US may engage in unrestrained interference -- of which China will be the first target -- after the NMD system is built. Beijing was already alarmed by a series of US actions intended to "return" Washington to a prominent role to East Asia, including the strengthening its alliances with Japan and Australia; increasing military cooperation with the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia; and seeking military cooperation with Mongolia, Vietnam and India.
No matter how the US views its own actions in East Asia, Bei-jing thinks that the US is working to contain China. These US actions have led China to build a quasi-alliance with Russia and, together with four Central Asian countries, to establish the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on June 16th -- obviously with the strategic consideration in mind of countering the US.
China believes, however, that the US' hardline rhetoric and actions won't last long. The EP-3 reconnaissance plane collision and weapons sales to Taiwan have brought bilateral relations to a low ebb, but Beijing hopes that the summit of APEC economic leaders in Shanghai this October will bring an opportunity to turn the situation around. It hopes that Sino-US relations may improve if Bush attends the APEC meeting as he has pledged and meets with Chinese president, Jiang Zemin (江澤民).
On the other hand, China is still taking a wait-and-see attitude toward cross-strait relations. It is closely watching the changes in Taiwan's political environment, waiting for the outcome of the year-end legislative elections and observing the direction of US policy toward Taiwan. In addi-tion, top Chinese officials are busy making political and economic preparations for China's entry into the WTO and for the Chinese Communist Party's 16th party congress, scheduled for next year. China doesn't want to create more trouble on the cross-strait front.
Taiwan is facing domestic political turmoil and a changing international framework. China either doesn't dare, or is simply not in a hurry, to make its move. Since taking office, President Chen Shui-bian (
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