India is being courted by several great powers.
One graphic sign of US intent was the recent visit to New Delhi by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. During that visit, Armitage spoke warmly of India's growing economic strength and its significant political and moral influence in world affairs.
He indicated in every manner possible that the US took India seriously as a rising great power. Armitage also hinted that the Bush administration was likely to lift the remaining economic sanctions, imposed when India conducted a series of nuclear tests in 1998, within the next few months.For its part, New Delhi seemed surprisingly receptive to Washington's position on ballistic missile defense.
Armitage's conciliatory approach was consistent with the overall attitude of the Bush administration. Indeed, Bush himself signaled an interest in India as a possible US strategic partner in his first major foreign policy address as a presidential candidate in late 1999.
There is good reason for viewing India in that fashion. Not only is India the world's second most populous country, but in recent years it has begun to discard the shackles of socialist economic planning and adopt the market reforms that have spurred economic growth in several other countries.
India's economic growth rate the past two years has hovered near 6.5 percent, and according to International Monetary Fund estimates, India may have the world's fourth largest economy by 2020.
India is also rapidly emerging as a serious military player. It is already a member of the exclusive global club of nations with nuclear weapons. India's conventional forces are being rapidly modernized as well. Last year, New Delhi increased its military budget by some 27 percent and followed with another 14 percent this year. Much of that additional spending is going into the air force and navy with the goal of developing a credible force-projection capability.
New Delhi is showing a growing interest in matters outside the subcontinent to match its expanding military capabilities. Last year, for example, it dispatch a naval contingent to the South China sea to participate in maneuvers with a number of Southeast Asian countries. The official reason was to help battle the scourge of piracy in those waters, but a clear underlying motive was to show the Indian flag in a region that Beijing has increasing regarded as being within its sphere of influence.
The US is wise to be interested in India as a de facto strategic partner. India has the economic and military potential to be part of an important balance of power in Asia. In particular, it could help serve as a strategic counterweight to China if Beijing should ever begin to pursue expansionist ambitions.
Unfortunately, some obstacles stand in the way of the Bush administration's goal. During the Clinton administration, America's actions often made New Delhi nervous. The US-led NATO attack on Serbia (especially when combined with the decision to bypass the UN Security Council) raised fears among Indians that someday the US might give New Delhi an ultimatum regarding the Kashmir dispute.
One important reason for the recent surge in India's military spending is to make certain that Washington can never treat Kashmir as it did the Kosovo problem Washington's imposition of economic sanctions in response to India's nuclear tests also annoyed Indians across the political spectrum.
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