Alliances are not a guarantee of success

This year's elections will revolve around the Lee-Bian (李扁) and Lien-Soong (連宋) alliances. Barring the unforeseen, these two camps will define the next phase of change in Taiwan.

This writer recently completed a telephone survey targeting respondents nationwide and discovered the following:

One, developments within the Lee-Bian camp will have the greatest impact on the KMT. Approximately 20 percent of KMT supporters will support the Lee-Bian ticket -- a big headache for KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰).

Two, 20 percent of DPP supporters do not welcome former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) aid to President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). Recent statements by DPP legislator Lin Cho-shui (林濁水) are just one example of this [Lin expressed skepticism about Lee's ability to exert much real political influence these days].

Three, as for the Lien-Soong axis, 34 percent of KMT supporters don't want to cooperate with the People First Party (PFP).

Four, PFP supporters are more in favor of working with the KMT, with a very small number willing to support the Lee-Bian partnership.

Five, young voters and voters with high levels of education aren't in favor of the formation of political alliances, such as Lee-Bian and KMT-PFP.

To sum up what these figures show, we can predict that if the DPP embraces Lee Teng-hui wholeheartedly, it will certainly face an internal backlash. A lukewarm acceptance of Lee would be the most beneficial.

If an internal backlash does occur in the DPP, it will definitely present more opportunities for the small number of independent candidates vying for seats in the year-end elections.

Currently, the KMT is the political party experiencing the most pain. Twenty percent of its members do not support a Lee-Bian link-up, while a third oppose cooperating with the PFP. Since Lien has already adopted a policy of cooperation with the PFP, the next step could well be one of trying to stabilize the emotions of the one-third who don't approve of the KMT-PFP alliance.

Another serious issue which Lien must face is that of his relationship with the former president and KMT chairman. This matter is bound to come up eventually.

Lee's prestige has declined, but still, if operations go smoothly, those within the KMT who oppose a KMT-PFP alliance will eventually leave the party and "add wings" to Chen's "tiger."

If Lee is used incorrectly, however, it could give the appearance that, as James Soong (宋楚瑜) has said, the DPP was merely teaming up with "black gold" politics. If the black gold issue were to resurface, it would indeed be an obstacle for the Lee-Bian camp. And, if this should happen, Lee's political career would end along with the year-end elections.

Ten percent of people in the PFP support a Lee-Bian alliance, which amounts to about 2 percent of the entire voting public. Still, the PFP must face the fact that, if candidates in the new KMT-PFP alliance aren't strong, given the "choose the person, not the party" attitude of voters, the PFP might end up getting votes without getting seats due to a lack of well-balanced voter distribution in some metropolitan areas.

Voters this year, however, have shown a lot of antipathy towards political parties. Thus, regardless of what method the four players -- Lee, Bian, KMT and PFP take -- they must take care not to act rashly. Otherwise, they will get just the opposite of what they desire and be terminated by those who make the fewest mistakes.