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Walking the middle path between US and China

The welcome that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) received during his stopover in New York City en route to Latin America amounts not only to a breakthrough in Taiwan's diplomatic efforts, but is also proof that the US recognizes Taiwan's democratic achievements since last year's peaceful transfer of political power. Unlike the treatment received by former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) in the US in 1995, Chen's visit shows the importance the Bush administration attaches to Taiwan. The US has gradually leaned toward Taiwan in the triangular US-China-Taiwan relationship, as Sino-US ties have become increasingly tense and antagonistic. Thus, Taiwan has become a powerful bargaining chip a US seeking to counter China's growing strength.

What deserves attention, however, is whether the Bush administration's pro-Taiwan stance and new pragmatism in its international strategy are advantageous for the security of Taiwan and even the Asia-Pacific region. Will the US' pro-Taiwan position cause cross-strait relations to stagnate or even deteriorate? Will US arms sales to Taiwan induce a cross-strait arms race?

For a long time, US diplomatic strategy has vascillated between pragmatism and idealism. When the US shifts its international strategy, the US-China-Taiwan triangular relationship takes on a different appearance. Since Bush took office, Sino-US ties have changed. On the one hand, based on its new, pragmatic, strategic thinking, the US regards China as a competitor. The military and commercial conflicts between the two nations have deepened. In particular, the rise of China has threatened US influence in the Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand, driven by isolationism, the US attitude toward shouldering international obligations is gradually weakening.

Taiwan, having long depended on US protection, should therefore evaluate the US' new international strategy and the goodwill it shows. When the US decides to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, such a decision may not necessarily be in Taiwan's long-term interests. The people of Taiwan should steer clear of the wishful thinking that such a decision guarantees US support for Taiwan's defense. After all, the purpose of such arms sales may just be to meet US military and industrial needs, and satisfy supporters and interest groups backing the Republican administration.

This author supports the recently approved US arms sales to Taiwan. But excessive emphasis on military force will in turn spark an arms race across the Taiwan Strait and could easily create regional instability. With regard to cross-strait relations, the US has tried to interfere by advocating a "Track Two" or even "Track Three" diplomatic effort between Taiwan and China. This may not necessarily be a good mechanism for dialogue, especially when cross-strait exchanges desperately need improvement given the current deadlock. Depending on the US may even be disruptive for the resumption of cross-strait negotiations.

Geopolitically, Taiwan is an important strategic pawn for the US in the Asia-Pacific region, therefore the US hasn't ruled out including Taiwan in its planned Theater Missile Defense system. But such a move would definitely trigger a backlash from China and force China to strengthen its alliance with Russia. If old Cold War thinking based on a trilateral balance of power re-emerges, regional conflicts will increase. A conflict between regionalization and globalization could develop.

Taiwan has long looked to the US to ensure its survival. That is why Taiwan must understand the US' strategic thinking, instead of blindly embracing it. If Taiwan cannot give up US protection, it at least has to find its own path between the two powerful nations. Therefore, relying on the US is self-deceptive and unrealistic.

Wang To is a DPP legislator. Translated by Jackie Lin
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