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Pass on the Kidds

The debate that has followed the unveiling of America's arms package for Taiwan has been revealing. What has been demonstrated is the danger of allowing defense policy and arms procurement strategy to be directed by the chance circumstances of what the American military happens to be trying to get rid of at any particular moment. A strategy of purchasing expensive, white-elephant arms prevents more intelligent, measured defense planning from moving ahead and is likely to put Taiwan's continued security in jeopardy.

The Kidd class destroyers being offered to Taiwan represent a massive expenditure with little likely benefit. They are designed for long-haul, transoceanic voyages and combat while Taiwan needs lighter, faster ships suitable for patrolling the Taiwan Strait. What's more, the destroyers are inadequate for deterring or intercepting the types of missiles that the PRC has amassed on its coast.

Simply put, the ships are more expensive than they are useful. Besides the cost of actually purchasing them, there is also the simple fact that they are too large for Taiwan's military harbors. Their 10m draft and the nearly 10,000 tonnes of water that they displace mean that millions, possibly billions, of dollars will have to be spent on re-engineering the harbors to accommodate them. It seems to me that there is enough controversy about the development of harbors as things stand without adding more fuel to the fire. Taiwan's long-term defense does not depend on having large destroyers patrolling the Strait. The nation would do much better to invest the same money in anti-aircraft weaponry, early warning monitoring equipment and missile systems capable of introducing an element of mutual deterrence.

The PLA is unlikely to launch an invasion until it can be assured that Taiwanese forces have been weakened and that the poorly trained PLA troops will meet with little resistance. It will also be unwilling to accept the threat of a retaliatory strike against one of its coastal installations. It is worth examining the feasibility of acquiring Tomahawk missiles. The submarines that the US has offered to sell could be built with the capability to launch Tomahawks. In the event of a PRC attack, Taiwan could then immediately return the favor with launches against PRC targets up to 1,609km away. It is extremely unlikely that many of the Tomahawks would be intercepted. With such a system, it would no longer be necessary for Taiwan to have a defense shield. Preemptive strikes against launch sites in Taiwan would be difficult, as submarines excel at hiding. Mutual deterrence would be afforded with minimal spending.

Budget increases are also sorely needed for the protection of existing military assets. Most of Taiwan's air installations are in plain view. Many of the advanced aircraft purchased in the last 10 years are sitting under simple shelters with little or no camouflage and no protection from air or commando attacks. These so-called hangars are barely good for keeping out the rain, let alone surviving a bombing or missile raid.

Rather than adding to a poorly protected arsenal, Taiwan should invest more money in the survivability of its existing assets. Air and missile installations should be reinforced and hidden. Weapons systems should be moved regularly and clandestinely to inhibit the PRC's ability to target missiles. Counter-intelligence measures must be stepped up. If Taiwan's military survivability in the face of missile attack can be improved -- and it can -- that could add days or even weeks to the schedule of a PLA attack leading to a ground invasion. That is time that could make the difference between US forces arriving to assist and capitulation before US forces can mobilize.

In light of these and other factors, it seems clear to me that Taiwan ought to forego the Kidd class destroyers. The sole argument in favor of buying them seems to be that they are for sale. The submarines, aircraft and other hardware in the deal are more realistic acquisitions. Yes, the ships look powerful and imposing. But an invisible reality of strength is preferable to a visible pretence of the same.

Jackson Landers

Charlottesville, Virginia
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