President Chen Shui-bian (
In the future, the DPP could therefore join forces with those in the opposition who share the party's ideals and support reform in order to form a legislative majority. Once accomplished, political stability could be restored. A number of DPP members went as far as to propose a coalition government during the same meeting. For the moment, the topic of inter-party cooperation has become the center of public attention.
ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE
Based on the DPP's difficult position as a minority government, the party's chance of winning a legislative majority in the year-end elections -- and becoming a majority government as a result -- is remote at best. The KMT proposes that after the election the majority party form a majority government in accordance with the constitutionally mandated "semi-presidential" system of government.
However, a DPP-KMT coalition government would enjoy the support of nearly two hundred lawmakers. Under the circumstances, the government would seem to lack any real checks and balances on its power. This would not be a healthy development for political democracy. On the other hand, continuing the KMT legislative majority and the usurpation of power by the opposition parties is no better.
The DPP minority government currently faces external as well as internal threats. President Chen initially relied on a platform of a "government for all people," (全民政府) and the appointment of a KMT premier, Tang Fe (唐飛), to make up for the problems unique to a minority government. However, the new government has turned out to be a "government for all people" in name only.
The ruling party abruptly announced the halt of the construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant (核四), failing to fully understand the mechanics of the legal system and the financial and political infrastructure of the country. Thereafter, the government was besieged by domestic turmoil, completely derailing the operation of its "government for all people."
Even without such a major catastrophe, a minority government in a political democracy has some inherent birth defects to begin with -- primarily that the opposition force outweighs the ruling force. In Taiwan, legislative power is being abused to thwart the executive branch.
Spinning in circles
In many respects, the ruling party's own lack of experience and unfamiliarity with government operations has fostered its violation of the Constitution and the law. In essence, the ruling party has become fully constrained by the opposition alliance. It has been unable to understand the impact the power structure has on the political and economic situation.
As an opposition party, the DPP was good at checking and balancing the ruling party. However, now the DPP lacks the experience and tact necessary to decrease the force of the impact between the ruling and opposition powers. As a result, the entire political process has been spinning in circles, accomplishing virtually nothing.
During the KMT regime, the executive branch dominated the government, creating a political by-product -- "black gold" politics. The KMT regime relied completely on the unique characteristics of a strongman leader, emphasizing leadership over the law.
After Chen took office, he tried to assume the strongman style leadership of his predecessors, failing to recognize the birth defects of his minority government, and the constraints imposed on it by the opposition majority.
As the balance of governmental powers tipped toward the legislative branch, the executive branch became paralyzed. The Chen administration's inexperience in governing and its inability to formulate sound policy has further backtracked the function of political democracy.
An ideal ruling party is one that acts consistently with the principles of democracy, and holds a legislative majority. Currently, Taiwan's constitutional structure is a "semi-presidential" system, under which it is best the president and a majority of the members in the Legislative Yuan belong to the same party. However, currently President Chen belongs to a minority party. While the appointment of ministry heads by the president does not require the approval of the Legislative Yuan, the Executive Yuan is nevertheless accountable to the legislature.
The legislature also holds the law-making, budgetary, interpellation, treaty, and war powers, among others. The opposition alliance holds 2/3 of the seats in the Legislative Yuan, yet it has not learned how to conduct itself as an opposition in a political democracy. In fact, the alliance continues to over-indulge in self-pitying and retaliatory sentiments, opposing the new administration whenever possible.
As a result, the Chen administration has become a lame-duck administration during the interim period before the year-end legislative elections. The legislature's power has become significantly stronger than that of the executive. As a result, the new administration's performance to date has been less than praise-worthy. In fact, it has made many mistakes. It has in essence become much like a near-bankrupt company.
Taiwan's major political parties, including the DPP, PFP, KMT and the New Party, are all spear-headed by ideology. Ideologically-based politics bring both endless bickering and standoffs -- the worst possible components of a political democracy. Instead, political parties should place their emphasis on the pursuit of popular welfare, democracy and human rights that can bring high-quality political democracy to society.
The DPP's ideology is built on the notion of an independent, sovereign Taiwan state, while that of the opposition alliance favors a unified China. Of Taiwan's population, 18 million are native Taiwanese, while 4 million are ethnic mainlanders. In a party built on ideology, the will of the party reigns over the popular will. The ideals of the party become sacred doctrines that can in no event be violated or contradicted. Whoever runs counter to the party's ideals will be treated as heretics to be eradicated. The current ethnic and ideological conflicts between the ruling and opposition parties of Taiwan are the greatest threats to Taiwan's political democracy.
The DPP is a party built on "Taiwanese Principles," while the KMT, PFP, and New Party are all built on "Greater China Principles." Polls indicate that about 15 percent of the population believes in the "Greater China Principles," and 15 percent in Taiwan independence. Seventy percent, however, holds the "Taiwan First" belief.
Taiwan first
This last group gives priority to the island's stability, development and prosperity. They identify with neither the radical "Taiwanese Principles" or the "Greater China Principles" embraced by the opposition. The party distribution of the Legislative Yuan, however, fails to reflect this popular will. The people of Taiwan recognize that the New Party and the PFP are parties that ethnic mainlanders strongly identify with. However, despite strong Chinese traditions, the KMT has also successfully integrated the native Taiwanese and ethnic mainlanders in the party. The party was so plentiful in resources that it managed to sustain party splits that lead to the birth of both the New Party and the PFP.
Actually, the ethnic mainlanders' identification with the KMT has been become rather diluted. However, there are many native Taiwanese that remain in the party, because of its rich resources that they have at their disposal to use in the advancement of their own political careers. This group within the party holds a lot of self-contradictory and confused sentiments toward the KMT's identification with China.
The KMT, PFP, and New Party are very close in ideology. As a result, they have formed a so-called opposition alliance. They intend to jointly seek a legislative majority in the year-end elections. They also support the "one China principle, with each side free to make its own interpretation of what it means (
Although the opposition alliance has suffered major setbacks in their cooperation for the year-end elections, it is unlikely that the alliance will end after the election. Together, these three parties have a good chance of obtaining a legislative majority of about 140 seats. If the DPP remains a minority party after the election, the Chen administration will continue its status as a weak minority government, further weakening the political dynamics and democracy of Taiwan. The opposition alliance will further skew toward the "Greater China Consciousness" ideology. With his minority administration paralyzed, President Chen will become a lame-duck president.
In 1949, the KMT suffered a devastating defeat in China. Yet it has enjoyed much success after relocating to Taiwan. This was because the political elite who relocated from China made a continuous effort to recruit Taiwanese political elite into its fold.
In 50 years time, the KMT successfully shaped Taiwan into one of the top ten economic powers in the world. But last year, the people of Taiwan elected Chen, the DPP candidate, as president. As a result, the ethnic mainlanders who used to perceive the "communist bandit" in China as their "public enemy number one," found Chen and the DPP replacing that enemy. They believe that the DPP and A-bian are closer to being "bandits" than any "communist bandits" ever could be.
The opposition alliance intends to stage a comeback in the next presidential election. Therefore, it has adopted a strategy of opposing the Chen administration at every opportunity. All the misfortunes of the people of Taiwan come from such abnormal political dynamics and party structures.
While the DPP may represent the Taiwanese consciousness, it does not represent the will of all the people in Taiwan. For example, the New Party and the PFP represent the will of the 4 million ethnic mainlanders in Taiwan.
The KMT, however, is no longer identified by the ethnic mainlander. Yet it is neither accepted by native Taiwanese. Therefore, the KMT is interested in taking over James Soong's (宋楚瑜) electoral support. The New Party and the PFP, however, are interested in the KMT's enormous political and financial resources. If the PFP can win 65 seats in the Legislative Yuan at the end of year, it will become the leader of the opposition alliance. Then, three years from now Soong may run in the presidential election against Chen on behalf of the opposition alliance.
Many ethnic mainlanders blame Lien Chan's (連戰) election defeat on Lee Teng-hui (李登輝). People who pretended to support Lien but secretly supported Soong protested in front of KMT headquarters after the election, forcing Lee Teng-hui to resign as KMT chairman. Forced out by Lien, the successor he hand-selected, Lee reluctantly resigned and handed the chairmanship to Lien. The KMT thereafter abandoned the "Lee Teng-hui path."
Losing `localization'
The KMT is not only straying from Lee's path, but also distancing itself from its previously acquired "localized" characteristics. Lien's circle of confidants are all middle-aged ethnic mainlanders. Lien has already rendered ten years of KMT "localization" efforts ineffective, restoring the KMT to its original "Chinese" look, namely, a KMT based on the one-China principle.
The "localized" lawmakers, politicians and party staff in the KMT recognize this fundamental change in the party, and the way that the KMT is dancing to the tune of the "one China" principle being sung by the PFP and the New Party. The support of these localized KMT members toward their party and Lien has thereby decreased, and their hearts are beginning to gravitate away from the KMT.
The legislative election at the end of this year will be crucial. It is pretty much certain that none of the three major parties -- the KMT, PFP or the DPP -- will obtain a legislative majority. The PFP has predicted that each of the three parties will obtain about 60-70 seats. The KMT estimates that it will win around 90-95 seats, while the DPP has projected its seats at 70.
Currently, the DPP and the KMT are both assuming "safe" campaign strategies. In contrast, the PFP is adopting a strategy of recruiting from its opposition allies. Elders in the KMT and the New Party have already openly condemned Soong for his party's strategy of preying on the flesh and blood of other parties, and putting them at risk of turning into "empty shells."
However, in view of the PFP's limited resources, unless it recruits from its "allies," it has no chance at reaching success. Therefore, the internal contradictions of the opposition alliance are very serious. The future prospect of cooperation between the opposition parties is quite worrisome.
Among the ways that President Chen might break free of the constraints of a minority government include possibly seeking a party-to-party model of cooperation. However, if he works with the KMT, they would certainly demand a handsome price in exchange. It would also be disadvantageous to the development of democracy to have a strong ruling alliance built on KMT-DPP cooperation.
Trying to break free
Furthermore, the PFP as a result might be able to spearhead the opposition force. If the DPP does not work with the KMT, it would have to work with the PFP in order to have a majority coalition government. However, too large a gap exists between the ideals of the PFP and the DPP, making the basis of their cooperation relatively weak.
In any event, it will probably be too difficult for the DPP to seek inter-party cooperation at this point, as the opposition alliance has already emerged. While an alliance between any one of the opposition parties and the DPP may help the DPP enjoy a legislative majority and help accomplish political stability, the clash with the opposition alliance would remain severe.
In a newly-released book, An Account of Lee Teng-hui in Power (
The book says that the alliance between the three opposition parties, and the collapse of the "localized" faction within the KMT, have given rise to the need for a re-organization of the political dynamics and the structure of Taiwan's democracy. President Chen has also echoed Lee's views by stating that a split and reorganization of the political parties is inevitable. The DPP will join forces with those in the opposition who share its ideals and support reform to organize a stabilized legislative majority.
A second way for President Chen to break free of the constraints of a minority government would be to work with individual lawmakers to organize a legislative majority. This scenario is more compatible with the norms and principles of restructuring political dynamics. Seeking cooperation with those holding similar ideologies and ideals is the basic principle of power division and reorganization.
Therefore, if the DPP is able to obtain 85 seats at the year-end election and the "localized" faction within the KMT and the independent faction could win between 30-35 seats, then the latter group may organize a new party or group based on Taiwan consciousness to form a coalition government with the DPP.
As the political parties of Taiwan are divided along ideological and ethnic lines, the DPP must reach out to the KMT and independent factions holding Taiwanese consciousness in order to enjoy a legislative majority.
President Chen must also appoint a person with a localized background and seasoned political experience as the premier, so that Taiwan can undergo a peaceful transfer of legislative power after the peaceful transfer of executive power last year.
Help Taiwan establish a new political mainstream. Resolve the constitutional contradictions of a presidential and "co-habitation" systems under Taiwan's unique "semi-presidential" system of government. Find a way out for Taiwan's future.
Lee Chang-kuei is the president of the Taipei Times.
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