Political alliances may spell trouble

An alliance between the KMT and PFP -- the third possibility -- is probably the most likely scenario, in the light of the similarities in their policies and voter bases. The biggest problem, however, is that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) would not be obliged, under the Constitution, to nominate for the premiership anyone supported by a KMT-PFP alliance. If Chen insisted on appointing a DPP member as premier, the KMT-PFP alliance would only be able to boycott the Cabinet, leading to a sharp escalation in political tension. We can see, therefore, that a new set of problems will surface once the year-end elections are over. Each possible mode of inter-party cooperation has its own set of problems.

Finally, it is generally believed that the existing opposition alliance between the KMT, PFP and New Party will only be able to cooperate in the elections for county commissioners and city mayors. Each party will have to fight independently in the legislative elections. This view needs some modification.

In fact, the key to successful cooperation between the opposition parties in the legislative elections is not whom these parties nominate, but how many candidates each party nominates. Take, for example, an electoral district where 10 legislative seats are up for grabs. If the DPP expects to nominate five candidates and win 35 percent of the votes, critical to the election outcome will be the total number of candidates nominated by the KMT, PFP and New Party. If the three parties nominate seven or eight candidates in total, the DPP's prospects in the election will be poor; two or three of its candidates could suffer defeat. If the three parties together nominate 10 or even 12 candidates, all of the DPP's candidates will stand a chance of being elected.

If the opposition parties wish to begin negotiations about cooperation in the election, therefore, they should first talk about the number of candidates to be nominated.

If the opposition parties reach an agreement to cooperate but it turns out to be nothing more than an empty formality, and if all they really care about is expanding their own territories, they had better be prepared for a lonely and bloody fight to the death.

Emile Sheng is an assistant professor in the department of political science at Soochow University.

Translated by Jackie Lin