US-China relationship hangs in the balance

Beijing will continue to exercise repressive policies and control the media within the country. It will continue to suppress defiant organizations such as Falun Gong (法輪功), Zhong Gong (中功) and the China Democracy Party, and strictly control the Internet and other media.

Beijing will slightly downscale its nationalist propaganda so as not to harm its own grip on power.

Beijing will maintain a tough but non-confrontational attitude toward the US, and seek to improve relations at an appropriate time. Given the long-term economic benefits, Beijing will not fall out with the US to the extent of making war.

Beijing will continue to woo Taiwan's opposition, support its candidate in Taiwan's next presidential election, and lobby Taiwan's high-tech and financial industries to invest in China. Beijing will continue to develop its high-tech military industry, and make all-out efforts to develop its navy, air force and space programs. China will try to enable its warships to evade surveillance and enter the Pacific Ocean undetected.

Beijing will also attract overseas talent home to develop its high-tech industries. China will enter the WTO and try to attract foreign capital and technology.

I believe that, from now to Bush's China visit this fall, relations Beijing and Washington will not be smooth.

Quarrels will be inevitable. China may maintain a tough attitude, but only verbally, given the wide gap between the two sides' power. Verbal pugnacity can maintain diplomatic dignity and please nationalists within the country.

Beijing-Washington relations can only recover in the period from Bush's visit to the end of the CCP's 16th Central Committee meeting.

Also, if China can maintain an economic growth rate of 7 percent to 8 percent Chinese society will remain stable. Under such a balance, Beijing and Washington will gradually restore mutual trust and return to friendly relations.

If the bilateral relations are further aggravated by another unforeseen event this year and Bush refuses to visit China, then Sino-US relations may become unsalvageable. The two sides are very likely to move toward a cold war.

Predictably, the two sides will be very careful in their handling of disputes and conflicts.

Chris Wu (伍凡) is editor in chief of China Spring and China Affairs magazines.