In the wake of the collision involving military aircraft from China and the US, the friendly relations that Beijing and Washington have managed for many years have suddenly deteriorated drastically. Negotiations currently underway in Beijing between China and the US to handle the aftermath of the accident are an important first step in normalizing the relations between the two countries. But based on current developments, future prospects leave no room for optimism.
At the same time, the political authorities in Beijing have fallen into difficult straits internally because of the aircraft collision incident. Several factors -- including the rising tide of Chinese nationalism, the hawkish posturing of high-ranking PLA officers who publicly threatened that they would be ready to fight World War III with the US in order to attack Taiwan, and severe interference in politics by the military -- have all curtailed the degree to which Beijing and Washington can improve relations.
The following is a summary analysis of the relations between Beijing and Washington as well as the measures and strategies that can be adopted by each side.
short-term relations
The delay in handling the aircraft collision, Beijing and Washington each insisting on their own point of view, and especially President Bush immediately taking a harder line after the 24 crew members returned to the US, all clearly indicate that the relations between the two countries are deteriorating. In the short term, there is no way they will take a turn for the better. The heart of the matter is mutual distrust on both sides.
The US can insist that the Chinese plane provoked the US plane and not back down on this point. Washington can also insist upon recovering the US surveillance aircraft as soon as possible. Negotiations currently underway in Beijing between China and the US are only "each side having its own interpretation." There won't be many positive results.
The US will insist upon openly resuming surveillance flights over international waters near the coast of China and observing the PLA's military exercises in coastal waters.
Arms sales to Taiwan will go forward according to the original plan. However, because of the deterioration in relations between Beijing and Washington after the aircraft collision, the plan for arms sales to Taiwan will necessarily be affected. The sale of the AEGIS system will be postponed, but Kidd-class destroyers and diesel-powered submarines will be sold to Taiwan. Every effort will also be made to satisfy Taiwan's other requests for arms. This is already a very good result for Taiwan and an unexpected result of the collision.
The US will still attempt to thwart Beijing's bid for the 2008 Olympic Games.
The US will strengthen support for human rights in China, voicing support for Falun Gong (
In June, the US will review China's normal trade relations (NTR) status. We estimate that President Bush, who advocates "free trade," will support giving Beijing NTR status. The US congress will then pass a bill giving Beijing NTR status. The US hopes China will enter the WTO as soon as possible.
Bilateral military exchanges will be cut back.
Since the aircraft collision , no third country has spoken up for Beijing.
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