A certain degree of tensions will still persist between the two sides as long as covert military expansion and rivalry continues. Unpredictable conflicts can still break out. Even though the US and China have signed a "Consultative Mechanism to Strengthen Military Maritime Safety," that did not prevent the EP-3 collision earlier this month. Nor was it able to prevent the confrontation between a Chinese naval ship and a US intelligence-gathering ship in the Yellow Sea in late March.
Even though military confidence-building mechanisms are an important tool for ensuring peace and security, they are by no means impeccable. Also, Taiwan cannot possibly sign such an agreement under the present circumstances.
Taiwan should therefore seek another way out for its national security -- a path that is more peaceful and stable. Any military measures taken by the two governments will have to have public support within those countries. Therefore, the crux of the problem lies with the people on the two sides.
Perhaps the Taiwan authorities and NGOs should more actively promote exchanges and mutual understanding between the citizenry of the two sides, provide aid to poor and underdeveloped areas in China, and disseminate an understanding of peace. These measures will create confidence-building mechanisms between the people of the two sides. Such measures may take rather a long time, but they will be more substantial than tricky military and official agreements. They will also better prevent war in the Taiwan Strait.
Ho Sheng-fei is editor of the Chinese-language Peacetime Foundation Web site.
Translated by Francis Huang
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