The arms package that US President George W. Bush seeks to provide to Taiwan is the biggest and most important since his father's decision to sell 150 F-16s in 1992. For this we thank him, though we have reservations about the arms to be supplied.
First, no AEGIS-equipped Arleigh-Burke-class destroyers. Frankly, we are not surprised. Provision of AEGIS would have raised the stakes in the cross-strait arms race considerably, as well as being a grave blow to US-China relations. That the US president, in office only three months, wants to be more sure of his ground before committing himself to such a move is a welcome sign of prudence.
Then there is the question of who, since they are no longer made in the US itself, is gong to build the eight submarines. The labyrinthine possibilities are discussed elsewhere in this newspaper (See "Source of subs remains unknown," page 3). But let us caution that between a US promise to facilitate Taiwan's acquisition of submarines and the boats cruising into Tsoying Naval Base lie a very larger number of obstacles. It is nice to see that White House spokesman Ari Fleischer is so confidant that these can be overcome.
We will not cavil about the Kidds. Twenty years old they might be -- they were originally built for the Shah of Iran -- but, since it might take almost a decade to put Arleigh-Burkes into service, once they are approved -- as they inevitably will be -- Taiwan needs a stopgap measure to tide it over.
In overall strategic terms, however, Bush has just completely changed the nature of the US-China-Taiwan relationship. And this is only in part to do with the nature of the weapons the US has pledged to sell. Bush's reorientation has three aspects.
First, in the wake of the weapons provision announcement, Bush abandoned Washington's usual ambiguity about defending Taiwan, specifically committing himself to coming to the nation's aid were it attacked by China, pledging, in an interview taped for the TV news program Good Morning America to do "whatever it took."
Secondly, Bush also said that he would end the annual review of weapons sales, a cumbersome process which only allows China to lobby more effectively. Bush said negotiations would take place with Taiwan "when needed."
Thirdly, submarines have hitherto been classed as "offensive" weapons, and thereby have not been provided to Taiwan since the US is only committed to providing weapons of the "defensive" kind. That Bush is in favor of Taiwan acquiring submarines suggests a new realism in the US outlook, an understanding that since Taiwan has no intention of making war on any of its neighbors, then any and all weaponry it receives is for defensive purposes only. Since the distinction between defensive and offensive has in the past proved little more than acknowledging a Chinese veto on the US supplying certain weapons to Taiwan, the collapse of such a distinction is welcome.
These three elements taken together make a skillfully played hand. China has been given notice that the US will defend Taiwan if it has to, and that it will continue to help Taiwan defend itself by providing what Taiwan needs when it needs it. The message is that Taiwan will get weapons to counter Chinese threats. The more threatening China is, the greater the number or power of the weapons it points at Taiwan, the more Taiwan will get in return.
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