The collision between a US spy plane and a Chinese fighter has triggered heated discussion about the possible consequences for international politics, and even the possibility of a new Cold War between East and West. What Taiwan needs to do is to analyze the different strategies adopted by China and the US and figure out the logic behind their respective maneuvers. Taiwan should then be able to find a niche in which to survive.
The term "new cold war" is only a description of a potential confrontation between East and West. It would be different from the original Cold War era both in nature and strategic rationales. The ideological antagonism, group confrontations and the top priority given to military power would not exist in this phenomenon which may be evolving at this very moment.
Although the traditional military conflict still plays the most pivotal role in the new wave of East-West antagonism, economic competition between nations is becoming much more intense as a result of the globalization of capital. Economic forces will therefore exert considerable influence in the newly emerging international situation. In other words, economic factors will become crucial bargaining chips in the political struggle between countries. Naked military confrontation of the sort that occurred in the Cold War -- such as the Cuban missile crisis -- is less likely to occur.
Since economic factors have become significant, powerful nations now have a third consideration in addition to military prowess and political consequences when they make
diplomatic policy or agendas for negotiation. In this regard, the US and China have shown different priorities in their diplomatic strategies.
The order of US priorities is that President George W. Bush intends first to formalize the policy of regarding China as a strategic competitor and then maintain US dominance through military alliances. Economic considerations are apparently secondary to foreign policy.
Meanwhile China, the world's most populous country and one experiencing rapid economic growth, thinks that it should be a major decision-maker in the international arena. In fact, China clearly demonstrated its determination to stand up against the US in the spy plane crisis.
On the other hand, China also recognizes that, unlike Russia, it is not powerful enough to counter the US. The present phase of China's diplomatic policy therefore involves dealing with US hegemony by using the growing Chinese market as its bargaining chip.
Consequently, most countries with which China tries to build ties are old friends in the Third World in desperate need of China's financial assistance.
What is noteworthy is that, even though China is still the Big Brother of its old friends, they are not united by ideology. Economic interaction between them is of greater importance.
China adopts a similar ap-proach with European countries it intends to befriend. For example, China provides preferential economic conditions or simplified administrative procedures for the importation of goods from these countries to lure them into the Chinese market and to foster good relations.
As for Taiwan, it must decide the order of priority in which it places the three elements of national security -- political relations, economic strength and military power.
RSS