In many ways, the future of East Asia appears to be a bright one. The Asian financial crisis is now contained. Many states are enjoying improved growth fore-casts, reduced unemployment and increasingly positive trade balances.
Another positive trend is the spread of democracy. In 1997, a former political prisoner was elected president of South Korea. In March last year, Taiwan's voters also elected an opposition candidate to win the presidency. Even China is experimenting with democratic reforms in the countryside.
Still another momentous development is the relaxation of tensions on the Korean penin-sula. The historic June 2000 summit between Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il rekindled hopes that the two Koreas might be able to achieve a peaceful, step-by-step reunification.
These and other developments appear encouraging. But the region's principal flashpoints for conflict remain. The prospect of an armed confrontation in Korea, a conflict with unimaginable human and economic costs, is still a distinct possibility. Tensions also remain high in the Taiwan Strait and there remains the threat of war over natural resources in the South China Sea.
The principal challenges to stability in East Asia are not new. What is changing, however, are the capabilities of East Asian governments to do something about them. Sophisticated military equipment is being acquired to bolster projection capabilities and strategic weapons systems are being introduced or upgraded to deter or defeat potential enemies.
With respect to ground forces, troop levels are being cut and units are being restructured. But most states are seeking to increase mobility and firepower. Combat helicopters, modern battle tanks, armored vehicles and transport aircraft are being acquired to bolster the combat effectiveness of rapid deployment forces and other elite units that are becoming the hallmark of the modern Asian military.
Naval power now is being viewed as an instrument of power projection. In recent years, China has acquired four Russian-built submarines while South Korea has acquired seven license-built German boats. China also is pushing to develop a new class of nuclear submarine.
In addition to submarines, a new class of modern surface combatants has steamed into Asian harbors. China's Sovremenny-class destroyers seem to have captured the most attention. But Japan's AEGIS-class destroyers, Taiwan's Knox-class missile frigates and South Korea's planned KDX-2 destroyers also represent a significant boost in naval capabilities. These modern vessels -- and other warships being acquired, manufactured or refurbished -- are often fitted with advanced missile systems, radar, sonar and shipborne helicopters. Some analysts contend that it is only a matter of time before China and/or South Korea acquires an aircraft carrier.
Turning to air power, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have procured advanced US war-planes, while China and North Korea have turned to Russia for new fighters. Most of these countries have also introduced (or hope to introduce) modern, domestically manufactured warplanes into their inventories.
Like the foreign acquisitions, the new indigenous fighters are armed with advanced beyond-visual-range missiles and other state-of-the-art weaponry. Air power will receive another significant boost with the introduction of mid-air refueling tankers. At present, both Beijing and Tokyo intend to acquire such aircraft. Airborne reconnaissance and signals intelligence capabilities also are being reinforced. Japan and Taiwan already operate AWACS aircraft, while China and South Korea hope to acquire them soon.
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