Finally, had the crisis continued, hardliners in the US would have eventually prevailed. In view of the large number of retaliatory means available to the US, Beijing must have realized that China's modernization would become jeopardized had the crisis continued. Beijing had no good reasons to drag the crisis out. Lying to its own people that the US had already apologized was a very good way out of the sticky situation.
After this lesson, the Bush administration may be forced to end its campaign-style rhetoric soon and instead formulate the substantive content of its China policy. It is foreseeable that a power struggle between the conservative camp and the foreign affairs machinery will take place until a compromise is found. We can expect the conservatives to make a lot of fuss about threats to the US and its allies posed by a rising China.
Before the Bush administration officially formulates a China policy, Taiwan's diplomatic machinery must make great efforts to win its backing. We have already seen the effort made in this regard by China. Taiwan must not fall behind in this regard.
The peaceful resolution of the crisis demonstrates the pragmatism that exists behind the Bush administration's tough exterior. Taiwan must itself therefore view the Bush administration's campaign rhetoric with pragmatism. While Taiwan may be able to remain optimistic about the Bush administration, the interests of the US are ultimately not identical with those of Taiwan. Taiwan should stop engaging in wishful thinking about this.
Joseph Jaushieh Wu is the deputy chair of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.
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