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It's time to choose fight or flight

Visiting New York on March 20, Chinese vice premier Qian Qichen (錢其琛) declared that Sino-US relations would suffer a very serious setback if the US were to sell AEGIS-equipped destroyers to Taiwan.

"The essence of the issue would change from a peaceful approach to unification to a military approach," Qian said. Asked if that meant an immediate, preemptive attack on Taiwan, he said, "It all depends on the circumstances."

While Qian refrained from raising the arms sales issue with President George W. Bush on March 22, he again invoked the specter of a great war at a Washington luncheon the next day.

So what are these AEGIS-equipped destroyers which alarm Beijing so much? Taiwan is seeking to purchase four Arleigh Burke class destroyers equipped with the AEGIS battle management system at about US$1 billion each this year. The AEGIS' long range radar would give Taiwan early warning for optimal deployments of its forces. The destroyers are equipped with missiles, guns and torpedoes. The radar system can track and defend against over 100 targets simultaneously. The ship's state-of-the-art command and control capabilities would give Taiwan's military the much needed ability to coordinate the operation of all its forces. If combined with newer submarines and anti-submarine aircraft, the AEGIS destroyers could help to deter a blitzkrieg by air and sea or a naval blockade by China.

China has been aggressively acquiring advanced destroyers, warplanes, submarines and other weaponry from Russia and Europe. It has targeted over 300 missiles on Taiwan. The number of missiles deployed is expected to increase to 1,000 by 2005. While Taipei's purchase of four AEGIS destroyers will complicate China's plan for a quick military conquest of Taiwan before the US can react, these ships by themselves are not likely to be a decisive factor in a conflict, given China's advantage in the size of its forces and the modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). So why is Beijing so adamant in its opposition to the sale?

These destroyers will take seven to eight years to build and deploy. The AEGIS could become the platform for a highly effective anti-missile defense system when transferred to Taiwan late in the decade. Such a system will not only undermine China's missile threat but also result in close military cooperation between the US and Taiwan, which China fears may turn into a de novo defense alliance. China is also drawing a red line on the AEGIS sale to test the resolve of the Bush administration early on.

Because of the 36-day stalemate caused by the Florida recount, the administration is behind schedule in assembling its foreign policy staff and hasn't had adequate time to develop its own policy on China, Taiwan and arms sales to Taiwan. Beijing may calculate that now is a good time to try its intimidation tactics, which worked so well during the Clinton years, on the new Bush team.

On the US side, there are those who feel that avoiding a rift in relations with Beijing should be a priority, arguing that no amount of arms will preserve Taiwan's security. We should not sell these ships to Taiwan, some even assert, lest these advanced weapons fall into PLA hands should Taiwan capitulate. On the other hand, there are persuasive reasons for authorizing the sale. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, which has been affirmed by Bush, the US is obligated to sell Taiwan sufficient defense items and services for its defense needs. The decisions on such arms sales are to be made without consultation with China and based solely on consideration of the military balance between Taiwan and China. There is strong support in Congress for the AEGIS sale, including that of Senators Jesse Helms and Trent Lott.

Over 70 US lawmakers have signed letters to Bush, urging full consideration of a sale to Taiwan of the AEGIS-equipped destroyers. The US Navy and defense contractors are also lobbying for the sale. Inside the beltway, a number of compromise solutions have been proposed. While the details differ, the key elements are, first a deferral of the sale decision for another year, contingent upon Chinese conduct, including a freeze or reduction in the number of missiles deployed against Taiwan, and resumption of dialogue with Taiwan without the precondition that Taipei first forfeit its sovereignty. Second, the construction of the ships is to commence right away so that they can be delivered in a timely manner if the sale is approved. Otherwise, the ships could be sold to other countries or retained for the US Navy.

Beijing has already rejected the contingent conditions so there are no valid reasons to delay construction of the ships. Avoiding Beijing's anger is not a proper reason for delaying a decision. Giving the Bush administration time to develop a shared world strategic view and a set of strategic goals in East Asia before it acts on the AEGIS sale, however, would be a sensible ground for delay. Taiwan's navy could also use the time to train a sufficient number of qualified sailors in anticipation of the acquisition of the AEGIS platforms. The Kidd destroyers could serve as stepping stones in this process.

Taiwan's more immediate needs include the PAC-3 anti-missile batteries, the P-3 anti-sub aircraft, diesel submarines, and the HARM anti-radiation missiles. Beyond the weaponry, Taiwan urgently needs assistance from the US military in defense planning and training.

The Taiwan government needs to convey to the Bush administration its determination to defend the country's democracy, both in words and deeds -- including an increase in the defense budget, reinforcement of hangars and warehouses to protect aircraft, ammunition and other military assets, more frequent joint-force exercises, implementing civil defense, and above all, preparing the people of Taiwan psychologically for the looming military conflict.

Strengthening national defense should be Taiwan's urgent priority. Failure to do so will tempt China to attack. A great majority of the 23 million people in Taiwan prefer the status quo. The people should be made aware that preservation of the status quo requires courage, sacrifice and a high degree of resolve to defend their country against Chinese aggression.

By constantly threatening Taiwan and actively preparing for war, China has abrogated the basic premise of the three joint communiques that no coercion will be used to settle Taiwan's future status. For Taiwan as well as the US, now is the time to choose between "fight or flight." The AEGIS decision is the litmus test. Will Washington make the right decision in time?

Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
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