Turmoil is the price China has to pay

In a recent speech in Washing-ton, veteran China expert Kenneth Lieberthal said that the West generally views China with a presumption that it is a rising power, and that this presumption may not be true. In fact, there is another possibility facing China's future: conflict and turmoil, and the subsequent weakening of the country's power.

In the long run (say 50 years) China will certainly become a rising power, calling the shots in the international community. But in the short term (say 10 to 15 years), the possibility of turmoil is much greater. Now, the Chinese Communist Party's excuse for opposing reforms is that they are worried the introduction of a democratic system may trigger social unrest. This indicates that the party has no confidence in China's future social stability. I am afraid most people on the mainland feel uncertain about the future, and many believe China will enter a period of turmoil.

On March 16, Shijiazhuang City (石家莊) in Hebei Province was rocked by explosions that left 108 people dead, according to official statements. The explosion marked China's entry into a period of turmoil.

Social unrest has become more and more serious in China over the past few years. The emergence of the Falun Gong (法輪功) sect and its confrontation with the government marks the end of the stability which, induced by the bayonet and cash, has prevailed across China since the Tiananmen Square Incident. The emergence of large-scale terrorist activity is a sign of escalating social turmoil.

The Shijiazhuang explosions occurred at several different places and were detonated simultaneously. The bombs were made from dynamite normally used for mining. Only a group of explosives technicians could have committed such an act. This indicates that terrorist activities are becoming more organized and open in China.

As large numbers of workers are laid off and the gap between rich and poor widens, people disgruntled over their damaged interests might easily emulate such terrorist activities. In fact, explosions are not unusual in Shijiazhuang. A government vehicle exploded in that city last September, killing 14. Soon afterward, a series of explosions in a movie theater, a gas station and a market killed or injured several dozen others.

Nor is Shijiazhuang the only hot spot of social unrest. On Jan. 22, an explosion at a bar in Zhongshan City (中山), Guangdong Province, seriously injured one person and left more than 10 people slightly injured. On March 13, around 5,000 taxi drivers demonstrated in front of the provincial government in Lanzhou City (蘭州), Gansu Province, to protest the city's imposition of new service charges. The authorities sent out 300 riot police in a crackdown that left at least 20 protesters injured and 10 people behind bars.

Even better known was the explosion at an elementary school in Jiangxi Province earlier this month, which killed up to dozens of school children. Before that, an arson case at a disco club in Zhengzhou City (鄭州) killed more than 200 young people. Over the past few months, the frequency and intensity of such vicious incidents have been on the rise across the country. Zhu Rongji's (朱鎔基) so-called "stable development of society" has become tinged with irony.

Taiwan went through a period of social turmoil in the late 1980s, mainly in the form of popular activism. In contrast, the rising social turmoil in China takes the form of violent incidents -- an indication that China may have to pay a much higher price for its social transformation.