Editorial: Qian gets cool reception in US

"Deafening thunder but little rain" may well describe the results of yesterday's meeting between Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen (錢其琛) and US President George W. Bush, given that Qian's performance during that meeting was in stark contrast to his earlier, menacing remarks about US arms sales to Taiwan.

Qian's most important tasks on his Washington visit are to stop US sales of AEGIS-equipped destroyers to Taiwan, establish new positions in US-China relations and build communication channels with the Bush administration. To pave the way for Qian's visit, China's ambassador to the US Yang Jiechi (楊潔箎) and deputy director of the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office Zhou Mingwei (周明偉) lobbied Washington officials, warning of the seriousness of an AEGIS sale to Taiwan. Beijing's intimidations climaxed on Tuesday when Qian met US reporters. Selling the warships to Taiwan will have "serious consequences," Qian said, adding that he would not rule out a pre-emptive strike against Taiwan if the sales went ahead.

His rhetoric, like Beijing's threats in the 1996 missile crisis and in the run-up to Taiwan's 2000 presidential election, backfired. Wire stories on Qian's remarks sent shockwaves across Taiwan and the White House, and prompted condemnations from around the world. An attack on Taiwan because of the AEGIS sales would prove Beijing's military ambitions beyond doubt and show that its "peaceful resolution" slogan is a blatant lie. In fact, Qian's baring of fangs only added to the appropriateness of US defensive weapons sales to Taiwan -- and more US assistance in improving Taiwan's defense capabilities.

Qian took a more low-key approach in his meeting with Bush, lowering his rhetoric over the arms sales. But Bush nailed him all the same. He stressed the need for good relations with China but told his guest that Washington will meet Taiwan's defense needs and encourage human rights reforms in China. Bush did not even refer to the three Sino-US communiques, which mention a gradual reduction of arms sales to Taiwan and are therefore favorable to Beijing. Instead, Bush explained his policy in terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, which promises the provision of weapons Taiwan needs for self-defense and is therefore more favorable to Taiwan. The two did not mention the AEGIS destroyers during the meeting -- perhaps an indication that Qian was totally frustrated in his task of blocking their sale to Taiwan.

Even if the US decides to sell the AEGIS warships, the decision will not immediately boost Taiwan's defense capabilities because it would be eight years before the ships were delivered. However, selling the ships would demonstrate that the US understands Taiwan's defense needs under the Chinese missile threat -- and is willing to act on them. Such effective interaction is actually more important than the ships themselves.

China is by no means afraid of AEGIS. After all, the warships have never intercepted any missile in any real war. The number of missiles in China's possession is far beyond the missile defense capacity of four AEGIS-equipped destroyers. What Beijing fears is a Taiwan-US alliance, which could evolve into cooperation in a Theater Missile Defense system and beyond. Such cooperation would shatter China's "gloved fist" drive for unification.