For a long time, Taiwan advocated its policy of "three no's" in order to avoid becoming too economically dependent on China and thus endangering its economic security, and to prevent the formation -- due to economic and cultural exchanges across the strait -- of numerous groups with interests connected to China. The policy was also aimed at stemming the erosion of a newly established sense of Taiwanese identity. It was also meant to prevent businesspeople from Taiwan working in China from becoming a kind of leverage for Beijing's policy of "using people to push the officials, using business to surround the government" (以民促官,以商圍政).
After Taiwan achieved democratization, the government strictly enforced its policy of "no haste, be patient" (戒急用忍), which has had a remarkable effect in terms of maintaining its political and economic stability.
With the end of the Cold War, and the subsequent rise of globalization, political democracy and market freedoms, Beijing, which had previously resisted "capitalist liberalization," could no longer hold out against the arrival of Western individualism and culture in China.
Under pressure from the increasing gap between rich and poor, Beijing decided to participate in economic globalization. At the recent session of the National People's Congress (人民代表大會) some representatives spoke candidly on this issue, describing how the gap between rich and poor had reached levels considered dangerous by even international standards. The session allowed discussions of democracy by Communist Party and government officials and academics, considering them to be a foundation for political reforms at the upcoming meeting of the 16th Central Committee of the party. In comparison, Taiwan, which had formerly aspired to become both the "logistics center" and "operations center" of the Asia-Pacific, saw itself in the late 1990s increasingly losing the confidence that had come with its democratic achievements.
With the deepening of functional relations such as globalization, as well as trade and cultural exchanges across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's political elite seemed to float along from election to election, unconsciously allowing Taiwan to slip into the rut of a "new isolationism."
China and Taiwan have frequently used "Cold War" and "Cold Peace" ideologies to both encourage internal consolidation and resist infiltration by the other. In contrast, strategies used by the US, USSR, West Germany and South Korea, such as engagement, peaceful competition, Ostpolitik and Nordpolitik, all boldly employed "soft power" to alter the other side's strategic orientation and affect the other's civil society. Nowadays, the US, Europe and Japan all uphold "one China" and peaceful resolution, while continuing to engage in trade, financial, cultural and economic exchanges with China -- urging Beijing during this process to join all kinds of international organizations related to disarmament, finance, and human rights. This reflects the supreme confidence these countries have in their own market economies and democratic systems.
Of course, along with increasing incomes and rising state power, China has been penetrated by Western society's academia and politics. As a result, its people have even learned how to lobby and do fund-raising to preserve their own interests. This is not surprising, just as it is not surprising that, after Taiwan began exchanges with China, some Taiwanese appealed to the legislature and Executive Yuan for protection of their various investments and interests. The point is that the Chinese Communist Party, increasingly tied to the market economy and democratic systems of the West, will be unable to reverse the trend of gradual integration into mainstream international systems.
If China wants to maintain economic growth and achieve relative affluence, it must accept its international responsibilities.
The real pity is that Taiwan, with its Western culture, capital and industry -- is best equipped to act as a "switcher" between the West and China. Taiwan could use the flexibility and creativity of its people to develop its influence, making the interests of China and the West converge simultaneously in Taiwan. It could strive to find a way out for its labor-intensive industries and upgrade its industrial structure by integrating superior international capital, skills and management. But today, both the ruling and opposition parties are either consumed with infighting or shirking their responsibilities. With confidence shriveling, they conduct cross-strait relations from a position of isolationism and with a victim mentality.
Apart from merely waiting for a change that is unlikely to happen or breaking into nasty internal struggles when change doesn't happen -- the Taiwan government has been unable to provide guarantees to labor, the unemployed, the elderly, farmers and other disadvantaged groups affected by globalization and the exodus of industry to China. Rather, it has left those engaged in cross-strait exchanges without backup -- lost, with no choice but to listen to Beijing's anti-independence brainwashing.
We shouldn't be overly concerned about China's two-pronged policy. We cannot make it abandon the "one country, two systems" doctrine overnight. Neither does China need to be particularly anxious about the US' two-pronged policy of engagement and containment. After all, wanting the US to give up its Pax Americana is impractical. As Taiwan's trade framework undergoes a transition, in which China has already emerged as Taiwan's second biggest source of trade surplus, why not try a different way of thinking rather than trying to stem the development of dependence, which would only cause Taiwan to become a prisoner of sluggish economic growth, rising unemployment and China's "money-sucking?" Why not add another prong to the "no haste, be patient" policy, accept the irreversability of cross-strait exchanges and turn China's pressure back on itself?
Taiwan can strive to ensure that China does not backtrack on progress made in its market economy and political reforms -- that Beijing has no choice but to continue advancing. In building mutual dependence and trust, we can actively create a solid foundation for peace in Taiwan. If we can do this, not only will Taiwan succeed in protecting its security and interests -- and enjoy continued development -- but it might end up becoming the mainstay of peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region.
Chang Teng-chi is a PhD candidate at National Chengchi University's Institute of East Asia Studies.
Translated by Scudder Smith
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