Politics and China's defense budget

This year, China's annual defense budget dramatically increased by 17.7 percent -- an increase of 21.3 billion yuan (US$2.58 billion) over the previous year, bringing the overall defense budget to more than 141 billion yuan. This is the largest increase in the last 10 years and has received more attention than ever from the US, Japan, and others in the West because it comes against the backdrop of increasing tension in recent years in the Taiwan Strait. Mainstream Western media have consistently commented that this increase in military expenditure is directed toward Taiwan. London's Financial Times believes Beijing intends to strengthen its ability to attack Taiwan. But commentary of this kind doesn't delve deeper into the interaction between the Chinese Communist Party and the military.

Of course, Beijing's beefing up of national defense in recent years and the increases in military expenditure starting from 1994 do include considerations for maintaining the military capability to attack Taiwan. Strengthening the capability to attack Taiwan, however, depends primarily on military purchases from abroad. According to an analysis by the Canadian-based military intelligence organization, the Kanwa Information Center (漢和中心), in 2001 the PLA plans to spend US$1.68 billion on the import of Russian SU fighter planes alone. That is to say, the national defense budget made public at the meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC, 人大) couldn't possibly have included purchases of imported equipment or other special costs and expenses. These expenses have increased greatly in recent years, clearly showing that Beijing is indeed strengthening the capability of its armed forces to wage war. The current increase in the national defense budget, however, should be called a move by Beijing to pacify the armed forces.

In 1999, Beijing decided that the armed forces would not be allowed to engage in commercial activity. This was a serious blow to the financial resources of the armed forces, and complaints could be heard throughout the military hierarchy. Calls demanding that Beijing dramatically increase the military budget also rose by the day. In their attitude toward the Taiwan problem, those at the higher echelons of the military frequently display an uncompromising, hawkish attitude, which in part includes an element of posturing as a way to demand more resources. This year, Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) decided to give the nation's civil servants a 30 percent salary increase. Naturally the members of the armed forces who also survive on government salaries can't be left out. This is really the heart of the matter when considering the recent significant increase in Beijing's military budget.

Behind this key point, the question of what role the armed forces will play in the personnel reshuffle that President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) plans to make at the CCP's 16th Central Committee meeting (中共十六大) gives even greater cause for concern. On March 7, at the NPC meeting, Yu Yongpo (于永波), director of the PLA's political department, suddenly began to sing the praises of Jiang, saying, "In the course of implementing the 10th five-year plan, the most important mission for the military is to vigorously strengthen ideological and political indoctrination, to safeguard the authority of the party center with Jiang at its nucleus and to secure the absolute leadership of the party over the military." He coined a new slogan, moreover: "Raise high the flag, safeguard the nucleus." Long before this, there were already rumors that Jiang intended to let Yu replace Chi Haotian (遲浩田), who is about to retire as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and defense minister. This gesture of loyalty by Yu was an oblique indication that the rumors are not groundless.