True, the behavior of China remains a concern, but the overall regional threat environment is substantially better than it was in the past. Given that improved setting, it would hardly come as a surprise if Washington concluded that US troop levels could be reduced without any serious risk to America's interests in the region. The modest but noticeable increase in the military capabilities of such US allies as Japan and South Korea provides an added margin of safety.
It would also not come as a surprise if a reduction in forces took place under a Republican president. Indeed, GOP presidents have been more inclined than their Democratic counterparts to approve such withdrawals. It was Richard Nixon who not only pulled US troops out of Southeast Asia but also withdrew one division from South Korea. It was Republican George Bush in 1990 and 1991 who ordered the number of troops stationed in Europe reduced from 300,000 to 100,000 -- a move that reflected an improved environment in that region with the end of the Cold War. The current Bush administration is likely to scale back the US military presence in east Asia over the next four years. It is uncertain how large the reduction will be, but a new force level of 50,000 to 60,000 troops is a distinct possibility. The nations of east Asia would be wise to prepare now for that change and take more responsibility for their own defense.
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and the author or editor of 13 books on international issues.
RSS