When last year we welcomed the Year of the Dragon, we also warned that, though it was supposed to be a time of momentous events, its unpredictable changes could be for either good or ill.
As the proverb goes, the dragon is dangerous because you can't see its head and tail at the same time. However, we optimistically focussed on the auspicious prognostications. After all, following the tragedy of the 921 earthquake, as well as the depressing descent of the presidential campaign into scandal and negativity, the people of Taiwan were certainly in need of a big change for the better.
Looking back, the past year turns out to have been a quintessential dragon year. On the one hand, the election of President Chen Shui-bian (
But, true to form, the dragon held many other surprises. Most obviously, the sudden drop in the stock market pricked the confidence of Taiwan's share-holding masses, causing widespread worries about Taiwan's long-term prosperity. The sense of panic, exacerbated by a sensationalist media, might itself turn out to cause a genuine slowdown if consumers react by restricting spending.
Of course, there were plenty of other exciting political developments, notably the wrangling over the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant (
Bolstering the astrologers, Taiwan's dragon events were curiously in lockstep with the rest of the world. Politically, many other countries also experienced historic transfers of power through presidential elections. Nations as diverse as Mexico, Yugoslavia, Senegal and Ghana, joined Taiwan in electing their first-ever opposition leaders, and "people power" surged in Peru, Cote d'Ivoire, and elsewhere. The year 2000 will certainly go down as a milestone in the global spread of democracy.
Likewise, Taiwan's stock market woes were part and parcel of a worldwide equity slump, sparked by the bursting of the NASDAQ high-technology bubble. And the negative wealth effect that Taiwanese economists are fretting about is forecast to occur in so many countries that wider global economic weakness may be in the offing.
And what can we expect for the upcoming Year of the Snake? The snake is traditionally a year to rebuild, a time to consolidate our gains and prepare for the future. That is certainly what we need to do here in Taiwan. There are many complicated issues at hand -- maybe not as significant as the transition of power or attempts to recall the president -- but which will require gritty determination to work through. The success of reform projects to eradicate corruption, strengthen the financial system and stabilize the political environment will depend on a comprehensive set of measures that will for the most part fail to make front-page headlines
On the other hand, drama will certainly be provided by the legislative elections in December, which should decisively conclude this extended transition period.
For the benefit of the nation, the people of Taiwan should put superstition aside come the end of the New Year festivities and roll up their sleeves to tackle the tough issues ahead.
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