The world's population was 5.657 billion in 1995. The UN estimate that it will grow to 8 billion by 2025, an increase of 2.35 billion in 30 years. The populations of developed countries will only increase by 500 million over this period, while the population of developing countries in Asia and Africa will increase by 2.3 billion. British economist Thomas Robert Malthus' principle of population still works for developing countries. According to experience, successful population control can only come after universal education and economic development.
Various estimates exist on exactly how many people can the planet Earth accommodate. If the entire global population enjoy the living standard of Americans, the planet can accommodate around 2.5 billion. If the entire world live at the standard of Indians, then the world can accommodate around 14 billion. For most people, the American lifestyle is too luxurious, while the Indian lifestyle is a little too impoverished. People generally can accept a living standard somewhere in between. In this context, the world can accommodate around 8 billion to 8.5 billion people -- a limit we will reach around the year 2025.
This is a serious question because we will be facing the threat of food shortages. Global food production has been rising all the way since the end of World War II, in step with the population growth. In general, food production has been able to satisfy the average person's needs, even though up to a million people still die each year in Asia and Africa from food shortages and malnourishment. Can we maintain this mode of food production continually? First, we have been using too much pesticides and fertilizers, and soil fertility has suffered extensive erosion. Second, we are also reaching the limits in expanding farm land at the expense of forests and coastal areas. Third, the development of new, more productive crop strains is also facing a bottleneck. Developing countries are seeing their populations and economies grow in step with the growth in incomes. This has given rise to a growing demand for animal feed and grains. An explosive increase in grain demand is an almost unanimous understanding of all global food research institutions.
Between 1950 and 1984, one ton of chemical fertilizers would increase grain yield by nine tons. But after 1984, one ton of chemical fertilizers would only increase yield by only two tons. This is a warning sign that the US and European approaches of using massive amounts of chemical fertilizers to increase production has reached a bottleneck.
In 1973, global wheat production decreased by 3 percent compared to the previous year. As a result, the trade volume in wheat fell by 30 percent due to the reluctance of wheat exporting countries to sell their produce. This led to a dramatic 300 percent price hike. This is an indication that one cannot rely on having more foreign exchange reserves in times of food shortages. Despite the expectations of increased production from recent gene-transplanted crop strains, reports have been coming out about their negative impact on human immunity.
In light of these facts, it is still important to maintain a domestic food supply rate. According to international principles of industrial division, Taiwan's agricultural sector, as well as other Asian agricultural sectors, are uncompetitive. In 1998, a US farmer cultivates 190 hectares on average. The figure is 4,000 hectares in Australia, 1.4 hectares in Japan, and 2.2 hectares in China. But in Taiwan, it is only 1.08 hectares. Massive gaps exist in the levels of mechanization. Taiwan stands to become a country with no agricultural sector and no farming villages -- like Hong Kong or Singapore -- if market forces are allowed to compete freely after the country enters the WTO. This is a worrisome prospect. Therefore, it is very important that Taiwan encourage its people to eat domestic produce, cut their reliance on wheat products and cut the waste of food, especially meat. In Taiwan, Some young people often order a pile of food, try a few morsels, and then stop eating. Then they go and take part in "24-hour hunger" events to get a taste of hunger. Their spirit is laudable, but their methods are questionable. The Taiwanese habit of throwing eggs in almost every protest and demonstration is also a violation of Nature. Reducing waste and reducing food imports in normal times is an effective way of fighting against hunger. It is also a greatest show of support and concern for people facing starvation in Asia and Africa.
Sun Piing-yann is a professor in the department of cooperative economics, National Taipei University.
Translated by Francis Huang
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