The recent publication of confidential internal Chinese documents -- "The Tiananmen Papers" -- by the American scholar Andrew Nathan (
In recent years, discussions among foreign China experts regarding democritization have for the most part been based on the American political scholar Samuel Huntington's theory of the "third wave of democratization" and the earlier American scholar Seymour Martin Lipset's ideas on the connection between economic development and democratization. According to Huntington's theory, following the third wave of democratization, those countries not touched by the wave (including China), will have difficulty -- at least in the near future -- taking the road to democracy. The key factor would be the countries' economic backwardness and inability to accept Western culture. Lipset points out that economic development and democratizaton have a very strong cause/effect relationship. Level of economic development is a factor found in both Huntington and Libset's theories, and the high level of economic development in China since the beginning of reforms has prompted foreign China experts -- using Western theories -- to analyze the possibility of Chinese democratization.
In fact, searching for the possibility of democratization in China via Western theories of democratization is very limiting. These scholars point out that the appearance of "developmental" local governments, diminshing control by the central government, and the appearance of new economic classes (middle class) might collectively give rise to democracy. Still, at best, these phenomena can only be attributable to a certain degree of loosening of authority in the political system. A transition from liberalization to democratization would require a mass concentration of collective societal power, as well as a challenge to the power structure. In China's present situation, however, along with a high level of economic development, a kind of "wealth consciousness" has supported the existence of numerous contradictions within society. Beneficiaries of the "Let some people get rich first" policy of course support the Communist Party, as well as those people living out in poor, remote localities, who also hope to become rich one day. From the vantage point of local society, advocates of democracy tend to either resort to abstract theories of democracy and freedom, or can't fully grasp the disagreements that exist within society, and thus are unable to find the common language needed to launch a movement. For this reason, motivation for local society to pursue democracy is isolated and weak. Take Falun Gong, for example. Any resistance (to the government) has been mobilized only by followers themselves -- one just doesn't see democracy or human rights supporters trying to form an even larger resistance force by calling for a show of unity with Falun Gong followers. On the contrary, some advocates for democracy and human rights even borrow elitist pseudo-science theory to attack Falun Gong as an "evil religion."
The method of analysis employed by these foreign China experts has also ignored the people's understanding of democratic values and their ideological background. Regarding China's future, Chinese intellectuals have -- since the introduction of reforms -- focused primarily on the two issues of nationalism and modernization, the latter probably inclusive of democratic systems. The TV series that caused a big commotion in the late 80s -- River Elegy (
If no major changes take place within China over the next three to five years, democratization will remain a distant prospect, but there will appear mild reforms from within the system. In last year's US presidential election for example, the lengthy lawsuits made Chinese scholars even more convinced that Western democracy has got some problems, as it reduced the government's efficiency. Thus, discussions among Chinese scholars have once again returned to reform of the bureaucratic system, including how to increase government efficiency, combat corruption, etc. This, however, is still a far cry from the division and balance of power sought after in a democracy. Or maybe this is once again a unique by-product of China's special brand of socialism.
Hsu Tung-ming is a freelance writer based in Beijing.
Translated by Scudder Smith
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