Although Iraq failed in its efforts 10 years ago, the past several weeks of violence in Gaza and the West Bank have now provided Saddam Hussein with the context that he then sought so vigorously. He may not wish to give Clinton the excuse for a direct and punishing military response against Iraq, and thus proceeding by stealth and terrorism may, at this point, be his preferred strategy.
Although only a few days remain until the Nov. 7 election, there is still time for the Iraqis to cause politico-military mischief, with all of its attendant economic consequences. Needless to say, the countless anti-Western terrorist groups scattered throughout the Middle East will also be trying to take advantage of the chaos which threatens the region, thus providing further camouflage for what the Iraqis are actually up to.
No analysts are truly confident in predicting the November electoral implications for the current crisis. Some believe that it will help Vice President Al Gore because he is seen as a more experienced hand in foreign affairs, and because of the traditional American reaction of rallying around the administration in times of international crisis.
Others see the advantage going to Governor George W. Bush, since the crisis underscores the continuing threat posed by Saddam Hussein and the lack of success of Clinton-Gore Middle East policies. Still others see the headline-dominating crisis simply distracting from the presidential race, especially for critical undecided voters who have not formed opinions, much less strong attachments, to either Gore or Bush.
Whatever any of the Middle East actors may be planning, no definitive progress in the region is realistically possible until after the next American president is sworn in on Jan. 20. Despite Clinton's seemingly unending quest for "legacy" achievements, the other parties increasingly understand that his lame-duck status precludes him from playing a central role. One can only hope that Clinton also comes to this realization, and that his frenetic diplomatic activities do not actually exacerbate the situation, risking further economic disruption to the world economy.
John R. Bolton is the senior vice pesident of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. During the Bush administration, he served as the assistant secretary of state for international organization affairs.
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