Whoever wins, the people will lose

Since the Executive Yuan announced its decision to discontinue construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant (核四), repeated rumblings have been heard among opposition legislators for a recall of the president and vice-president.

Why would the KMT want to lend its support to a recall motion? The KMT is currently the majority party in the Legislative Yuan, so why doesn't it opt for a vote of no confidence in the Cabinet, rather than a recall? Because there is a hidden agenda.

First, a recall won't necessitate snap legislative elections -- a fact that is very important to the KMT. Although the KMT currently occupies more than half of the seats in the legislature, after next year's elections it is expected to lose its majority. The PFP (親民黨) is expected to be the beneficiary. As long as no snap elections are called, the KMT can preserve its legislative advantage until the elections.

Second, those KMT legislators who support a vote of no confidence in the Cabinet are all confident of winning in the next elections. Those less certain of victory have naturally adopted a more hesitant attitude. It will therefore be difficult to integrate intra-party opinions. In contrast, there is no such obstacle to coordinating a recall motion.

Third, even in the event that the no confidence vote succeeds and no immediate progress is taken toward calling new elections, the KMT still must face a DPP president. That is why Lien Chan (連戰) has opted to "smash the enemy lair."

Fourth, recalling the president and vice president takes the showdown to the highest level. If the move is successful, the KMT might have an opportunity to take back the reins of power.

As for the PFP, it stands to benefit from either a no confidence or a recall measure. If the recall motion is passed,

Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) power will be significantly reduced. Of the currently eligible candidates, Lien and James Soong (宋楚瑜) have the greatest chance. If Lien and Soong combine forces, the PFP could share in the spoils. Even if Lien and Soong square off against one another, because of his mass appeal and campaigning ability, Soong's chances of winning are still greater than Lien's. A no confidence vote and elections could get the PFP even more seats in the legislature. As long as it can share power with the two major parties, the PFP ends up a winner.

The recently formed opposition alliance is undergoing a leadership struggle. Although Soong already holds the position of "advocate," the KMT has also come out swinging. In order to win leadership status, KMT party chairman Lien personally visited each political party for consultations. Since the recall motion has been adopted as the first wave of attack, being able to win control of the leadership is good "face" for the major opposition party. And should the recall motion succeed, being a leader during the ensuing election campaign will be even more beneficial. Even if the recall fails, the leader will continue directing the second wave of attack.

No matter how one analyzes the opposition's many moves, it is painfully evident that in this struggle, the people of Taiwan will be the losers. We've already spent too much energy on in-fighting. The conflicting interests of the parties have engendered a political upheaval. Opinion polls reflect the people's hopes for political stability, but when the opposition decides to close the door to negotiations and throw its weight behind a recall motion, we become very concerned. As we face the current international situation and changes in cross-strait relations, we need more than ever to consolidate , to strive to find common ground and not to take advantage of the situation for personal benefit.