On July 27, 1998, the first day of an ASEAN regional forum in Manila, China released a defense white paper to ally fears about a "China threat." On Monday, Beijing's State Council released another paper, entitled China's National Defense in 2000. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) -- in an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel -- immediately responded: "Beijing's military noise cannot sway us, as proved in the recent presidential election. Military threats will only push the two sides farther apart." Washington also said that China's threats are "counterproductive to the peaceful resolution of differences."
Instead of allaying international fears of a "China threat," Beijing's latest white paper has become a written testament to it.
China claims to follow a "defensive national defense policy." It also claims to oppose "hegemonism and power politics" and any country imposing its own political system or ideology on others. It opposed NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia and the dispatch of UN peacekeeping troops to East Timor -- labeling both examples of interference. Beijing's Taiwan policy, however, epitomizes hegemonism and power politics. Its attempts to forcibly impose a "one China" principle on Taiwan and stifle the free will of the people of Taiwan reveal just how far removed Beijing's deeds are from its words.
The new white paper reiterates the "three ifs" on which Beijing has built its military threats: "if a grave turn of events occurs leading to the separation of Taiwan from China in any name, or if Taiwan is invaded and occupied by foreign countries, or if the Taiwan authorities refuse, sine die [not setting a date], the peaceful settlement of cross-straits reunification through negotiations."
To render its threats credible, Beijing also talks about the "four haves" -- having the determination, confidence, ability and means -- and the "three nevers" -- it will never tolerate, condone or remain indifferent. This kind of hegemonic rhetoric is the root cause of instability in the Asia-Pacific region.
China has tried to use statistics to support its image of itself as a peace-loving nation. For example, the paper says China's defense spending is only 5 percent that of the US, 30 percent that of Japan, 48 percent that of France and 64 percent that of Germany. Even though China's official defense budget is only US$14.6 billion, no military expert takes this figure seriously because Beijing's actual spending is four to seven times higher. The 12 percent annual growth in China's defense budget, plus its belligerent rhetoric, will only create an impression across the international community of a growing threat.
China's white paper trumpets the establishment of mutual confidence-building mechanisms with neighboring countries. It opposes the newly revised Guidelines for US-Japan Defense Co-operation, which includes Taiwan in the "areas surrounding Japan." It also opposes Taiwan being included in the Theater Missile Defense system. But who will buy such rhetoric when Beijing keeps deploying more missiles -- aimed at Taiwan -- along the shore of Fujian and frequently holds war games, especially amphibious landing exercises?
With the white paper, Beijing has stepped up its military threats to Taiwan. It has also reminded Taiwan and the international community once again that they should harbor no illusions. Taiwan should keep its distance from China and think twice about abolishing the "no haste, be patient" policy.
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