The overthrow of the Slobodan Milosevic regime is another illustration of people power. The people not only signalled that time was up for one of the few remaining authoritarian regimes in the world, their action was also a reflection that democracy has become an irresistible, universal value and a global phenomenon.
The "Belgrade Spring " sends both an encouraging and a worrisome message to Chinese dissidents and the people of Taiwan. What is encouraging is that, with the arrival of a new economic era and the social changes which attend China's entry into the WTO, authoritarianism will eventually embark on a road leading to its demise.
Scenes like those in Belgrade will not necessarily appear in Tienanmen Square. But the "silent revolution" that has changed the essence of the Chinese communist regime is, in fact, being ushered in quietly by the hand of economic development from the coastal area to the hinterlands. The seed of democracy may very well sprout and bloom overnight.
What is worrisome is the fact that nationalism is a crucial variable in the process of democratization. Yugoslavia is an good example. Vojislav Kostunica, the new president, is an extreme nationalist. As the Western world celebrates the opposition's victory, they also worry about the future of the Balkans.
Even if the flame of democracy spreads to China, the authoritarian regime in Beijing may just wave the flag of nationalism to shift the focus of the call for democratization by pursuing the unification of Taiwan by military means. When the day comes, Taiwan, a model of democracy for China in the eyes of many, will more than likely become the martyr to a "Beijing Spring." We believe this would be far from the wishes of Chinese dissidents.
As we reflect upon the "Belgrade Spring," Taiwan should follow President Clinton's ideal: offering the hand of friendship can exert more influence than clenching your fists. In the global tide of democratization, Taiwan should seek to become the invisible hand that delicately pushes for change in China, rather than one which agitates Chinese nationalism.
Chen Shih-chang is a senior journalist.
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