The dispute over the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant is perhaps the most complex and controversial public policy issue in Taiwan's history. The Ministry of Economic Affairs is now set to submit a proposal to the Executive Yuan detailing alternative plans for sources of energy if the nuclear plant project is scrapped. The headache will then pass to the Executive Yuan.
Rising crude oil prices around the world have highlighted the energy problems involved in the plant's future. But it is also a difficult political issue.
President Chen Shui-bian
Various attempts have been made in the Legis-lative Yuan to overthrow the plant project. Taipei City and Taipei County have each held polls in an attempt to recall legislators who support the project.
Numerous demonstrations have also been held to protest against the plant. The problem is now poised to become a crucial social issue, given that the pro- and anti-nuclear forces are watching the outcome of the government's decision and waiting to make their moves. The plant's operation and the handling of nuclear waste -- which involves safety issues for tens of thousands of years in the future -- also add a moral dimension to the dispute.
The economic ministry's alternative energy proposal includes replacing the 2.7-million-kilowatt nuclear plant by helping private companies build natural gas power generators with a total capacity of 3 million kilowatts in northern Taiwan. But the ministry was immediately accused of wishful thinking -- given that private companies also face numerous difficulties in building power plants and the possibility of constructing even more plants is far from certain. The ministry also plans to raise electricity prices over a five-year period to make up for the financial losses incurred by the scrapping of the nuclear plant -- which will raise the average family's electricity bill by an estimated NT$2,000 per year.
Whether the people of Taiwan are willing to pay for scrapping the project is a big question. Domestic fuel prices are already soaring, along with international crude oil prices. A subsequent rise in electricity prices will further weaken the case for stopping construction of the nuclear plant. Previous surveys have indicated that public opinion in Taipei is almost evenly divided on the issue. Rising energy prices may tip the balance in favor of the plant.
After all legal means have been exhausted in attempts to stop the plant, the legislative and executive branches are now trying to pass the buck to each other on a final decision. Some have suggested that the Legislative Yuan should draft an anti-nuclear law. But this method is not politically feasible because the ruling party cannot opt for sure defeat in a Legislative Yuan controlled by an opposition majority.
Having considered all possible methods, we suggest that the issue be resolved through a national referendum. This may violate the principle of respecting expert opinion on technological issues, but expert opinion on this case is no longer clear. Everyone has had their say, but no consensus has been reached. The issue threatens to tear the government apart; there is an obvious need to go to a higher authority. In a democracy, what higher authority is there than the people themselves expressing their preference through a vote? Let both sides put their case as forcefully as they can and let the electorate judge. Whether the plant is built or not, there will be advantages and disadvantages. But any decision on the issue -- be it yes or no -- will do much less harm than a policy cliffhanger.
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