If Al Gore wins the upcoming US presidential election, he is likely to abandon the National Missile Defense (NMD) system currently planned by the Clinton administration and opt for a sea-based boost-phase system instead. More pressure will pile up on Taiwan to get out of the US-led TMD. Oksenberg and Shirk have both hinted at this possibility.
If, on the other hand, George Bush Jr wins the race, he too will scrap Clinton's plan, but he will push for a bigger NMD program. In this case, the pressure will increase on Taiwan to participate in the TMD program -- as will the financial pressure to cover the costs.
Taiwan has unwittingly forsaken arms control as a mechanism because strengthening its military preparedness seems to be the only effective way to defend itself in the face of massive Chinese pressure.
In fact, military preparedness and arms control are two sides of the same coin.
After a 50-year arms race, getting to grips with the subtleties of arms control should form the core of joint efforts by leaders on both sides of the Strait.
Yuan I is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University.
Translated by Francis Huang
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