Several Taiwanese war planes, including F-16s and Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDFs), reportedly approached China's coast in mid-July, nearly clashing with a Chinese military aircraft. This underlines the potential for innocent conduct to create misunderstandings and tension between the armed forces on either side of the Strait.
In order to avoid this, it is crucial that the parties set up a mechanism for preventing military incidents.
Since the early 1990s, Taiwan and China have sought to modernize their defense capabilities, in particular their air and naval forces. While Taiwan has introduced IDFs, F-16s, and Mirage 2000s into its air force, China has purchased Su-27s and Su-30s from Russia.
As a result, advanced aircraft fighters equipped with high-performance air-to-air missiles patrol the air space over the Taiwan Strait.
Given that the two sides have not officially clarified "spheres of activity" for their jet fighters, the potential exists for one's routine training and navigation flights to be viewed by the other as provocative.
Any unexpected encounter between Taiwanese and Chinese military aircraft could lead to an escalation of tensions.
It should be noted that Chinese military commanders have emphasized the necessity of aggressive policies toward Taiwan. They may trigger incidents to incite tensions in the Strait in order to compel civilian leaders in Beijing to take further military action against Taiwan.
Under such circumstances, an undesirable crisis or war could break out in the Strait. (On August 13, defense ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding
Among confidence-building measures (CBMs), those focusing on "tension-reduction" are designed to avoid military incidents. It is in Taiwan's and China's interests to consult on an early-warning system to prevent each other's fighters and warships from staying too close to the other's territories.
When any jet fighter or warship unexpectedly approaches the other's territory, its commander should be warned first by a polite code warning (on an officially agreed wave frequency).
The establishment of such a system should be accompanied by that of a channel to exchange urgent information, clarify intentions and take preparatory measures to prevent incidents from becoming crises.
It will thus be possible to avoid military incidents and to reduce the likelihood of an "accidental" armed clash between Taiwan and China.
Tsai Ming-Yen is a PhD candidate in the Department of War Studies, King's College, London.
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