Instead, Clinton has found himself hoisted on the petard of anti-missile defense and, in calling for a revision of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM), shown himself to be a prisoner of the old Cold War Warriors who, having "no demons" left, as General Powell used to say when in office, conjured them up. Not only have they managed to stymie the nuclear disarmament which should have come hard on the heels of the end of the Cold War, they have found new would-be nuclear enemies that require not just missile defenses in Alaska but will require a re-writing of "the cornerstone treaty" (to quote Richard Nixon) ensuring nuclear stability between the superpowers. So narrow are their perspectives it seems to worry them not one wit that they will trigger in Russia a sense of vulnerability combined with a deep suspicion of America's real intentions that will be quite counterproductive to future attempts at arms control. It will also persuade China that it should build up its presently surprisingly small stock of long range intercontinental nuclear missiles. This, in turn, could trigger India to build a bigger nuclear armory than presently intended. All this, combined with continuing American tolerance of Israel's nuclear armory, could, in time, persuade presently non-nuclear armed powers like Egypt, Iran or even Brazil that they too should revise their self-denying ordinances. (This is not to exaggerate. Do not put too much store in the "wise old men" of American politics. There was not one American political scientist who predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. And probably the only place you read a month before it happened that India would soon test a nuclear weapon was in this column.)
A month or two ago it was being said in some circles in Moscow that if Washington would agree to a START 3 that would mandate a 1,500-count ceiling on warheads, Putin might agree to amend the ABM treaty. Washington has turned this apparent flexibility on its head by saying it will only agree to a START 3 on the old terms of a ceiling of 2,500 to 2,000 if Moscow says yes to modifying the ABM treaty. It is Washington that has moved the goalposts. (If Moscow did momentarily consider a compromise it has now shelved the idea, convinced it has more to lose from agreeing to restraints on US missile defense than it does from US nuclear warhead superiority. Besides, it has read the tea leaves in Washington. Clinton is not prepared to stand up to Senator Jesse Helms who says he will block any treaty negotiated by Clinton.)
Not surprisingly, Moscow does not see why it has to compromise. It has right, if not might, on its side. But it does have one card -- Clinton's historical reputation. Is he as oblivious of this as his behavior sometimes suggests? Does he want to limp to the end of his presidency, and beyond, recalled in faint memory as the man who lacked moral conviction on the greatest issue of his day and allowed himself to become the prisoner of those who make a living by crying "wolf?" Perhaps if Putin can get that thought through to Clinton then the present American president might decide go out with something other than a whimper.
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