Scholars, officials, and interested members of the public will be poring over Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) inauguration speech for some time to come. Some will be looking for affirmation of their points of view or their theories; others will be looking for weak points to attack. The initial reaction of the public, according to various polls, has been quite positive, indicating that the immediate impact of the speech has been to reinforce the honeymoon momentum that Chen has been developing ever since the election.
It is important to note that the speech focussed largely on domestic issues, in particular on the need to deepen Taiwan's democracy and root out corruption. An assault on vote-buying and "black gold" was clearly identified as Chen's "top-most" priority. Governmental restructuring and efficiency, judicial reform, quality of life and educational and cultural development all received ample attention.
However, the international media, as is their wont, has focussed almost entirely on the cross-strait dimension, combing the last few paragraphs for clues as to how well Chen can handle the pressure from China.
The verdict? At least initially, it can only be that he will do so with a combination of strength and skill. Both of these attributes were apparent in his two key formulations on the topic. First, he referred to the "question of a future `one China.'" This is consonant with his previous stance that "one China" is a topic that Taiwan is willing to discuss in talks, but not a precondition for talks. Standing firmly on the strength of Taiwan public opinion, he did not give in to China's demands for an immediate concession on this point of principle, but continued to leave the door open for genuine talks.
In this context, it is interesting to make a comparison with the upcoming summit between the two Koreas. It is apparent that political talks could occur between those two adversaries only when both sides understood with confidence that neither was interested in unification in the foreseeable future.
Chen's second, more concrete, statement was also very pragmatic. Already dubbed the "five no's," the statement also did not cover new ground, but was simply a repackaging of Chen's existing statements on the question of Taiwan independence. The core concept, that a declaration of independence should be a deterrent action that would only be taken in response to military action by China, emerged years ago in DPP policymaking discussions. Since an overt declaration is the only excuse for Chinese aggression that the international community, particularly the US, could possibly accept, Chen's pledge would seem to ensure continued US support. At least it should defuse the fears of those in Washington who had branded him a dangerous hothead.
But in fact, Chen has moved the goalposts back a notch by adding the word "intention" to the qualifier -- "as long as the CCP regime has no intention to use military force against Taiwan." The original deterrent strategy left some grey area, if China were to employ indirect or "plausibly deniable" means to coerce Taiwan. Now Chen has stated that, unless China renounces the use of force, he reserves the right to take any of the five actions named.
This velvet glove on an iron fist was used to emphasize that the people across the Strait "share the same ancestral, cultural and historical background." Equally clever was Chen's invocation of ancient Chinese philosophy to express his expectation on the Chinese government.
In short, with this speech, Chen has placed the initiative firmly on China to show its goodwill. As he quipped yesterday evening, "if they still cannot understand, then what can I do?"
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