China is stuck in its own trap

With its increasingly inflexible approach to cross-strait relations, China has painted itself into a corner. The repeated use of military threats, increased missile deployments, insistence on its definition of the "one China" principle and talk of imposing a deadline for reunification are designed to threaten and intimidate Taiwan, and to warn other countries of China's resolve on the Taiwan issue.

But these tactics also leave little room for negotiation and even less for compromise. China's inflexibility and harsh rhetoric toward Taiwan's leaders do not provide much optimism for improved cross-strait relations. It has trapped itself in a tight corner, and may find it difficult to accommodate Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) recent overtures, even if it wants to.

Although China has trapped itself and demands that Taiwan accept its terms as preconditions for talks, there is no reason for Taiwan to fall into the same trap. China expects Chen to explicitly adopt Beijing's definition of the "one China" principle in his inauguration speech, but Chen should not oblige. Inauguration speeches should set the tone for the incoming administration, but need not make new policy pronouncements, especially one as politically and emotionally charged as the "one China" principle. Moreover, for Chen to adopt the "one China" principle in his inaugural speech would set exactly the wrong tone. It would give away a valuable trump card while getting little in return, and leave him with little to negotiate with in the future.

Patience is a virtue

The US has sent several missions to Beijing in recent months urging China's leaders to be patient toward Taiwan, especially in light of Chen's victory. Chen should also be patient toward China.

It may take several months until China figures out how it will respond to a Chen administration and the overall change in the political dynamics in Taiwan. During that time, China is likely to repeatedly test Chen's mettle, and he should refuse to play their game. He should resist their intimidation, but more importantly he should resist the temptation to give up on efforts to improve relations with China even if China does not immediately return the favor.

Tang Shubei's (唐樹備) recent comments are an example of the mixed messages coming out of China, threats combined with hints of flexibility. While offering to hold talks on an equal basis, not between central and local governments or between the PRC and Taiwan's local authorities, Tang conceded a major point. This was an essential element of Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) "special state to state relations" proposal last year, and Tang's statement that talks be based on equality even though it stops well short of acknowledging Taiwan's position that it is a separate state may show a softening of Beijing's position.

The White Paper in March proposed that the CCP and the KMT hold party to party talks on an equal basis, and now Tang has taken the next step by suggesting government to government talks on an equal basis. That could be the basis for a new round of talks, even if at a level below that of Koo Chen-fu (辜振甫) and Wang Daohan(汪道涵).

But this apparent softening of China's position was matched by a hardening. These equal talks can only occur if Chen accepts the "one China" principle. Furthermore, Xinhua's Chinese language service quoted Tang as saying that if Chen did not accept the "one China" principle, "the result will not be peace but war." China's official media later claimed Tang had been misquoted and amended his statement to say the result would be "disaster instead of peace, confrontation instead of harmony and hostility instead of goodwill."