Since China released its white paper on the "one China" principle in late February, the waves in the Taiwan Strait have become more turbulent than ever. The tide temporarily calmed down when Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) won the presidential election on March 18. As part of its diplomacy of prevention, Washington's envoys shuttled back and forth between Beijing and Taipei. Among others, Lee Hamilton, former House International Relations Committee chairman, was dispatched to Taipei while US Ambassador to Beijing Joseph Prueher worked through diplomatic channels to smooth things over in his jurisdiction.
There is no need to wait for the inaugural address on May 20 to understand these developments, because, Chen's remarks will serve as a time-out, not an end to the game. Both Chen and his partner Annette Lu (
Take Tsai Ying-Wen (蔡英文) as an example. She is Chen's new chairperson of the Mainland Affairs Council and a fair indicator in predicting the future relationship between Beijing and Taipei. Tsai has been a consultant for the Ministry of Economic Affairs for nine years and is currently a National Security Council advisor. It is an ideal choice due to her experience as Taiwan's negotiator for joining the WTO. However, it is also risky because she was deeply involved in the formulation of Taiwan's "state-to-state" position that was first announced by President Lee Teng-hui (
Similarly, Tien Hung-Mao (田宏茂), dean of the Institute for National Policy Research and foreign minister-designate, is also one of the architects of the two-states position. Both of them are likely to be the main obstacles for future negotiation between Beijing and Taipei.
Another ominous change is that Koo Chen-Fu (
A mechanism of mutual trust, such as military confidence-building measures, might not necessarily guarantee peace in the long-term, but it has utility in the short-term. Its benefits are four-fold.
For Taiwan, it can relax the tension during Beijing's so-called "listen and watch" period immediately following Chen's election. For Beijing, it can alleviate the anti-Chinese trend caused by the "China threat," thus helping rebuild its image in the international arena. For cross-strait relations, it can decrease the probability of a "security dilemma" which has evidently escalated from the arm races between Taipei and Beijing. For the US, a stable Asia can help maintain its global dominance.
The result of a partisan transfer of governing power in Taiwan has not made any perceptible change to the political environment of cross-strait relations. Consequently, this means an urgent need for establishing greater confidence between the two parties' militaries.
Since the 1990s, Beijing has tried to assuage fears of a "China threat" and to lessen tensions along its borders to help promote economic development. Conversely, Taiwan's military lacks experience in coordinating with foreign militaries due to its diplomatic isolation. Since 1979, US-ROC military-to-military relations have mostly been limited to discussions and training associated with the acquisition and maintenance of US weapons systems. But the US still enjoys the richer experience in dealing with Taiwan's armed forces. Thus, Washington can play an essential role in leading in mediating negotiations between Taipei and Beijing.
Both China and Taiwan have already published several white papers on their respective national defenses. However, as Beijing has consistently declared that "China will not renounce the use of force" to unify Taiwan with China, a mutual trust mechanism is more likely to be built multilaterally rather than bilaterally. The US is naturally the appropriate third party. Some organizations, such as the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, or think tanks such as the Center for Strategic International Studies are appropriate institutions to initiate such a conference.
Building mutual trust is, after all, the top priority for easing tension across the Taiwan Strait.
Antonio Hsiang is assistant professor at the School of Decision Science, National Defense Management College.
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