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Editorial: Chen is walking a fine line

Hawks on Taiwan's assertion of its sovereignty may be disappointed with the performance of President-elect Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). This newspaper applauded Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) "state-to-state" redefinition of relations with China last year, arguing that the "one China" policy had only resulted in much confusion internationally over Taiwan's stance and had seriously weakened this island's position against Beijing. When Mainland Affairs Council Chairman Su Chi (蘇起) pronounced "one China" dead, we were ready to dance on its grave.

Naturally we were alarmed and angered that this mistaken policy, which had served Taiwan so badly for so long, should be resurrected by an overly timid -- or conservative -- Cabinet and promoted by Lien Chan (連戰) in his election campaign. And yesterday Koo Chen-fu (辜振甫) appealed to Beijing to revert to the agreement to disagree on the meaning of "one China" that was a prerequisite for the landmark Koo-Wang talks to take place in Singapore seven years ago.

It's hard not to feel disappointed in seeing Chen apparently playing the "one China" game -- as if the change of government mandated by the events of March 18 never really happened, as if, in fact, Lee's "state-to state" announcement was never even made.

A better understanding of Chen's position shows why this tendency should be resisted. Chen is the first Taiwan leader ever to have a background as a hard-line advocate of Taiwan independence. This makes him anathema to Beijing and a source of deep worry in Washington. It is a measure of the difficulty of the position in which Chen finds himself that he cannot even count on the loyalty of some senior members of his country's armed forces, so imbued are they with reunificationist "big China" zeal.

Here Chen's position is the reverse of Lee Teng-hui's. Lee was the chairman of a famously conservative party and leader of a government not known for its bold new policy approaches. Lee could, on a personal level, however, be very radical indeed.

Chen, already perceived as a potential troublemaker, has to do everything he can to avoid having such a tag pinned to him for the next four years. If rumors are true that, in the wake of Chen's inauguration, China is going to resort to more "missile diplomacy" to try to force Taiwan to the negotiating table on China's terms, then Chen must appear to be the voice of sweet reason in the face of any provocation that China has to offer. The slightest suggestion of hotheadedness here will cause severe damage to Taiwan's cause, giving justification to the "troublemaker" canard and strengthening the hand of China's worryingly numerous supporters in Washington.

It should never be underestimated how little Taiwan is understood abroad. There is constant talk in Washington of the possibility of Chen's declaring independence, as if this was something that the new president could do at the stroke of a pen -- instead of going through a lengthy constitutional process in which victory would almost certainly elude the independence advocates. And it is not quite fair to say that Chen has adopted the policy of his predecessors without significant change.

Chen's line on "one China" is that it can be discussed. He has not suggested -- unlike the KMT -- that he already has a concept of "one China" -- even though Koo Chen-fu might yesterday have suggested otherwise. Taiwan is prepared to talk about anything with no preconditions -- what could be more reasonable than that? Beijing is prepared only to discuss Taiwan's terms of surrender -- something that even as ardent a supporter of Beijing as Henry Kissinger could hardly endorse as a smart policy.

The result of Chen's expediency so far is that Taiwan is looking very good while China is looking increasingly like Lord Byron's sister -- mad, bad and dangerous to know.
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