Back in January, in the thick of the election campaign, Vice President Lien Chan (
Now Chen Shui-bian (
When Lien made his suggestion, we considered it "pie in the sky." Although the idea has a certain aesthetic appeal, none of its basic prerequisites for success exist. Before any agreement of any substance cold be negotiated, there would have to be a credible renunciation of the use of force by China. Furthermore, in order for a confederation or commonwealth idea to be successful, China would have to be at least partially democratized, to the extent that constitutional principles were firmly adhered to. Even if these two conditions were met, there is no successful precedent for two units so widely varying in size to to join in such a union.
Of course, no progress whatsoever has been made on any of these fronts since January. Therefore, the confederation idea remains simply that: an interesting idea.
Although it may sound open-minded for Chen to suggest that, like any other idea, confederation is a topic that could be discussed -- "There's a lot of room for discussion of this matter," he said -- it is a risky move. Until now, Chen has pursued a very wise course, consistently reiterating certain key phrases such as "Republic of China" while inviting discussion of the "one China" principle as a topic in future talks, rather than a prerequisite. These statements already represent significant concessions for Chen and they adequately express his "good will." It is now China's turn to reciprocate, and the appropriate attitude for Chen and the new government is to wait for China's move.
China has thus far only tried to pressure Chen, in particular attempting to dictate the content of his inauguration speech. Chen, to his credit, has tried to lower expectations, repeatedly saying that no one should expect too much from that one speech. The danger is that, by further indicating his open-mindedness, he will only further whet China's appetite, encouraging Beijing to maintain its current rigid stance or even raise the level of concessions demanded.
Fortunately, Chen has been at least temporarily rescued by our favorite visiting "academic," Yu Keli (
Nonetheless, although Chen has probably escaped this time, we urge him to be more careful. His original stance was appropriate; any further is too far. And, in any case, all of this is a distraction from Chen's domestic agenda and the real work of making the transition successful. He should not be wasting his political capital in useless verbal sparring with China (or with domestic pro-China elements). Until China comes up with a serious proposal for talks, maintaining the current stalemate is fully acceptable.
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