The best concise answer to the question of whether China will be a constructive partner or an emerging threat in the early 21st century was given to us by an independent scholar in Beijing. In his view, the answer will "depend, to a very great extent, on the fate of liberalism in China: a liberal China will be a constructive partner; a nationalistic and authoritarian China will be an emerging threat." America must prepare for both possibilities, but its policies should avoid needless snubs and provocations that would undermine the prospect for the emergence of a democratic, peaceful China.
Ted Galen Carpenter and James A. Dorn are scholars at the Cato Institute and the editors of the forthcoming book, China's Future: Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat?
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